Something that seems to be overlooked a lot is what is happening at one’s high school. Which kids are applying to which schools. We are at a large public high school. Elite colleges can say all day that they don’t have quotas but schools like Duke, Vandy, Wash U, Emory, NU, Chicago and Ivies seem to take about the same number each year. This year, for us, kids decided to use ED more and almost all of the spots for these schools from our high school were gone in ED. Four kids got into Duke ED (very very strong students) and then none RD. NU - five got in ED (out of 144) and one (ONE!) got in RD. The incoming juniors are noticing this and already trying to talk their parents into letting them use ED.
Can’t comment as much on Ivies since our Ivy spots are always early apps - athletes or legacies. No exceptions this year.