@homerdog. Good points, but my son has been extraordinarily diligent about selecting schools he is interested in. He took the original list of those which have the major he wants, and eliminated the majority on basic undesirable characteristics (one being super low admit rates, like MIT). He’s a high stats/high rigor kid, so stats won’t lock him out of anywhere, but he is also an athlete and his sports take up 20 hours a week. He won’t have time to do a great job on 20 apps (nor will his HS allow more than 10). From there he uncovered the depts’ specialities (like institutes housed there, large grants awarded, and faculty publications). That’s how he got to his current list. Fortunately our state flagship is a high contender, but that has nothing to do with it being a safety for him and everything to do with the faculty there. He is completely aware of the acceptance rates of all contenders (including for his major).
He is also aware that while he isn’t very concerned with fit (perhaps naively), the colleges are. So the visit is more for him to learn if he is the kind of student who each colleges tends to attract. Knowing him, he will work very hard on his apps and wants to know as much about each school as possible.
Finances are not a barrier. His safeties are highly desirable to him already. And if his safeties burn to the ground this year and he gains zero other acceptances, he is fine with a gap year, too. He loves his summer/vacation job which he has had for 3 years (construction) and can easily do that full time for a year and earn a semester’s tuition.
Indeed he is very different than the type of student often posting or described here. He knows exactly what he wants. He doesn’t care about what a major is called, he only cares about what he will be learning and what types of research he can participate in (as soon as possible). He is judging the schools on things that are simply not available most places. So ‘finding more safeties’ is not an option. That’s like saying ‘find more schools with water polo teams.’ There are only so many which fit his academic criteria. Tough for a parent to argue with a kid who is choosing a college based on the type and quality of the actual education he will receive. He is just 17 and he very well may change his mind. But so far he hasn’t budged one inch. Given the pile of books on his desk about topics related to his intended major, I have to trust that his choice was far from capricious.