My chances at an Ivy, or equally selective school?

Your ECs are fantastic, but they may not make up for your GPA at the tippy tops, not even with URM status. If you can get your GPA up to a 3.8+/4.0 UW that would increase your chances, but that doesn’t seem possible, at least for the overall GPA, especially by the January deadlines. Don’t “hope” - do the actual calculations.

I would pick only one of those three colleges you listed as a “high reach” to apply to (that’s your lottery ticket: the place with 1-10% acceptance rate). Pick your other reaches from among the colleges with 20-40% acceptance rates. Make sure you have several match and likely schools.