My gut says you have a chance, albeit a limited one. Are you applying to other schools as well?
The raising guide dogs for the blind is really interesting but how rich of an ec is it really? There’s a big difference between raising 10 dogs and raising 1. Also is it you doing all the work and training or your parents? If it’s 10 dogs and you actually doing the work (as known to someone running the program) I’d strongly suggest that someone from that program writes a rec for you.
Yes I think being an urm will help but I’m not sure any of us know how much. Urm plus pretty good test score is very good. So you are competing against other kids in that bucket. If you luck out none of them are star athletes. That’s where the luck comes in.
Good luck!