Thinking about transferring out of UW Madison but calc 3 is holding me back

Hi guys, long story, I'm currently a sophomore now at UW Madison as an out-of-state but my home state is in California. I originally chose UW Madison because I, unfortunately, did not get into a UC. UW Madison is a great school, but it is expensive, I still feel kinda lonely for being far away from home, and I really hated the winter which was brutal. I am planning to major math/statistics. I'm trying to transfer in Fall 2020 to UCSC, but I'm considering UC Riverside as well just in case. I am also thinking about University of Georgia/University of Florida because the tuition is slightly cheaper and I do not want to get into a lot of debt.

Here's the issue though: my GPA is low (2.92) all because of a bad chem grade last year. This year calc 3 has been a struggle and I have a feeling that I might not even get a C, I'm thinking about retaking the class, should I retake? How likely are my chances of transferring to UCSC/UGA/UFlorida as a math/statistics major and which other schools should I check out?