@tropesmuse . . . I’m going to take a different approach than the others.
I believe where you’re going wrong is in your assumption that UCLA doesn’t count honors courses for fully weighted gpa for out-of-state (“oos”) students, at least in the first part of your post. It’s evident that the University does, because down below the applied/accepted/enrolled stats-matrices, UCLA does blend all domestic CA and oos students together in presenting the number of honors courses in a tiered format for both AP and non-AP taken by this combined subset. So in other words, for UC gpa calculation, there are no honors (non-AP) plus-ones for oos students, but for fully weighted, they are presented as plus-ones for oos residents.
Additionally, UC gpa doesn’t really have a lot of importance for UCLA because the University looks more at unweighted and fully weighted GPAs with greater relevance. The link you provided shows this. The capped UC average could have more importance to some of the other campuses, where minimum standards will at times come into play. Also, the UC system website does present all the campuses’ incoming-frosh grades in the UC-gpa format to keep with uniformity. (And foreign students don’t have a lot to show forth in weighted grades at their internationally-based schools which means the University weighs SAT/ACT a lot more for them in the admissions process.)
Regarding your third paragraph,
A slight correction: UC gpa allows only two plus-ones per the four semesters. So if one takes a standard five a-g course-schedule per these four terms, that would show forth as a 4.40 gpa which is the max possible, assuming here that all grades were A’s as you did in your example. After that there are not diminishing returns but negative ones, because If one takes six courses, the max would be a 4.33 gpa; and if seven – there are some who actually do this – these students’ gpa would be a 4.26 max. The student in your example would show forth with a 4.33 UC gpa, for both a CA and oos student.
With respect to fully weighted gpa, they could have been like you in taking all honors (including APs) during these two years, because there will be some that do have 5.0 gpas, though small in quantity.
Per the prior, your fully weighted gpa will manifest as a 4.85 for UCLA. However, as excellent as your unweighted 3.85 gpa is, I’d be keep an eye on maintaining it also, but it could actually be higher because UC counts an A-minus grade as a 4.0 (as well as both B-pluses and B-minuses as a 3.0 – as pluses and minuses supposedly balance out).
Just as evidence of the importance of unweighted gpa to UCLA, the CDS information has added a new tiered-grade reporting in 2019 by adding the percentage of those who graduated high school with 4.0 gpas. UCLA reported 47.7% who had 4.0s (with 98.7% of the freshmen who reported grades), along with a 3.90 average for all who enrolled. Additionally, a 3.94 gpa descended down to the 39th percentile per your link. However, since you’re competing against your fellow oos students to be admitted, for this cohort – instead of the enrolled, there was a 3.93 gpa at the 25th percentile. So be sure to be watchful over your unweighted gpa also.
I think you answered your own question, except that you meant, “I feel like the [former] is more likely….”
You’re doing extremely well, and if you continue on, you’ll undoubtedly be an excellent candidate for UCLA. All the best.