I would disagree with @GoBears2023.
UVA is a not a good chance for any OOS applicant, since the acceptance rate for OOS applicants are below 20%. Northeastern and Boston U are not safeties or even low matches for anybody anymore, now that acceptance rates are below 25% for these colleges.
I would also comment that “average chance” for Duke or UPenn are still in the low single digits for RD unhooked individuals.
However, you are a great applicant, and are likely to get at least a few great acceptances, so long as you apply strategically.