I am not sure why Rich Shaw seems to over admit. There is absolutely no reason to do so given the wait list. Just under admit and then go to your wait list. As I have posted above, every top school should go to its wait list every year. It makes so much sense for several reasons. It seems that all of the top schools do so except Stanford.
Stanford infrequently goes to its wait list. Indeed, for several years the admissions department caused major problems with housing. Certainly is 2012 when the incoming class was almost 100 above the target and again in 2015 when an off campus dorm had to again become available for undergrads.
I don’t know why Shaw does this and why apparently he is having such a large class this year. My impression (with a little inside info) is that there is little monitoring of the admissions office at Stanford. If so, this is too bad. The two essential tasks of the provost should be to monitor the tenure decisions of the faculty and to monitor who the admissions department admits and who they reject.
My theory is that Shaw in conjunction with the provost and others sets a goal for the number of incoming freshmen. People on Shaw’s staff, however, push for just one or two more of these amazing kids. Shaw then says, “OK but just this once.” It of course happens again. The provost doesn’t call him on it, so it continues.
Just an educated guess on my part. But I don’t know what other explanation would fit the data. If the yield rate keeps increasing each year, then (1) you have to adjust for the probable increase, and (2) you would not be going to the waitlist this year.
Others might have other explanations.