The old-timer’s here all can tell you about “type of student” and why you shouldn’t pin too much on your predictive abilities.
First- because kids change. The kid who was gung-ho for Cal Tech or RPI and wanted engineering as a HS freshman ends up wanting to work for an NGO on monetary policy by the time senior year rolls around (inspiring debate advisor? An econ elective?)
Second, because “type of student and type of school” is a very amorphous concept which is not grounded in reality EXCEPT for the extreme cases- the kid who is talented enough to get into Julliard for example. Otherwise, you should be thinking (and encouraging your kids to think) that all types of kids thrive at a wide variety of school. That’s the best way to head off the “dream school, my life is over if I don’t get into Dartmouth” syndrome.
And third- because even the best laid plans… I’ve got a family member who ended up turning down mega prestigious U (which they could comfortably afford at full freight) to stay local and commute to a not so great but not horrendous local college. Parent diagnosed with cancer (doing great now) and the kid wanted to be able to chauffeur younger siblings, throw in the random load of laundry. Of course I hope that you are healthy and strong and your investments deliver an 8% return every year and nothing bad ever happens… but reality- stuff happens.
So do yourself a favor and stop the “I have a strong sense of what type of student each of my kids is”. I had a late bloomer who ended up at MIT- who knew? we figured he’d be happy at a college where he didn’t have to work hard and where he could hide in the back of a lecture hall. Other kids look destined for the moon and then can’t keep up junior year and have to dial back the intensity; the parents just pray their mental health stays solid and who cares about college.