I agree with the sentiments. However, I have already been through the college merry go round and my kids are mostly in high school and they have been pretty consistent. The one who does not work, still does not work, the one for whom 8th grade math was effortless had an equally easy time with Trig. For distance, financial and cultural reasons there are not that many schools I would allow my kids to apply to, it is a universe of maybe 30 schools. Sure Tulane and University of Miami are getting pretty played out in terms of merit as they are starting to get the cream of the crop (probably how Brandeis, Vanderbilt and WUSTL were 10 years ago.) Sure there will be a substitute in 4 years but in general I have very specific ground rules. For example, if you are not going meets full need or substantial merit (less than or equal to in state), then you need to go in state.
In our case how sibling 529 plans are treated will make a difference of thousands each year. Even for the school my child will attend I have no idea how they would treat a 529 plan in her name (which she does not currently have).