10 or 20% odds are never “good.” It may sound like a simple “maybe I get in, maybe not,” but that’s making it a crapshoot. And colleges like Brown, NU, etc, have expectations. It’s not what you want, but what they need to see. Your understanding of this comes from how you research what the college says and shows.
So, Brown used to have a page showing who applied with what gpa and scores. I’m not finding it for now, but the tippy top stats kids were accepted at something like an 8% rate. Meaning, 92% of those were rejected. That should be sobering. Kids with the 4.0 gpa, rigor, highest scores.
Among those 8%, you can count on the vast majority of them (some athletic exceptions) fully meeting the college’s expectations- rigor, top grades, scores in range, a variety of responsible ECs, not just in your comfort zone, not just easy, the right sorts that are relevant to the college, show college readiness. And overcoming obstacles, not using them to explain why somehing is missing.
You get to choose the targets, but they choose the admits. It’s only half the equation to focus on what “you” want.