Whoa there, @FakeName1332 . I said that given all of the Naviance charts and other information over many years , I could estimate the chances of a student from a given group of schools to be a certain percent. In the case of Vanderbilt, which is a fairly popular destination here, an ED candidate from that group of schools with certain stats, likely has a 75% chance of getting accepted is what I can say.
Clearly, the result is 100% for any individual. But if a critical number of kids from that setting applied ED, the result would likely be that 3/4 of them are accepted. I also caveated this with the fact that, for any given unhooked kid, it’s likely less because there are often hooks in there that are unidentified.
This group of kids at these schools tend to have certain courses, ECs, LORs, be prepped in essays as the counselors, teachers and parents are familiar with the process.
The same stats would not apply to someone outside of that area. That is why I often tell kids on the forums to look st the Naviance info for their schools.If they are going to colleges that are get a lot of apps from that school, a lot of valuable info there, including an idea of your chances of acceptance.
Of course, if you are that black swan, an outlier from those students the stats do not apply. My youngest was very much a generic poster child for his school, but he had a high GPA, and good test scores. He was in the upper 10% , maybe 5%. Certainly not one of top 5 kids who are the ones who tend to get into HYPSMC unless they have a strong hook. My son had no real hook.