<p>Curious:</p>
<p>re: 5% vs. 25% chance of admission, look around for the big thread a few weeks ago. There’s no question that your hypothetical kid has much closer to a 25% than a 5% chance of admission to any of HYPS, and a greater chance at less competitive institutions. 5% is the background admission rate for all RD applicants at HYP. Unless you think all RD applicants are top 1-2% kids, your kid clearly has a better chance of admission.</p>
<p>The big issue is 25,000 +/- slots at top colleges, and 40,000 kids in the top 1-2%, however you determine it. All 40,000 kids can’t fit, no matter how many or few slots go to other kids. All 40,000 don’t apply, either – none of those schools gets more than 25,000 applications, including all those dreaded URMs, legacies, and athletes, as well as kids who are deluded by their SAT scores into thinking that they belong in the top-40,000 group, and other kids who may just be deluded. It’s not clear how many do apply, but I think that most of them find a place somewhere.</p>
<p>Re: 25-40%. Those numbers come from small LACs, not large universities. Few if any of these schools have more than 10-15% URMs overall, and many of them would not have needed any “tip” to be admitted. Athletes are a larger percentage of kids at LACs that care about sports (most of them), but most of them are statistically indistinguishable from the other kids admitted. Maybe the admissions people might have preferred to admit someone else, but the stats won’t show that, except for a handful of exceptional kids (and the same will be true of artists, too). </p>
<p>Same with legacies – the notion of a significant legacy preference at any of the top schools is a joke. Believe me, I know, based on my experience and the experience of dozens of friends whose kids have been entering college the past few years. Ten years ago, this may not have been true, but today legacy status gets you a nice, apologetic form letter after your child’s rejection. This includes people with mid-six-figure cumulative contributions to their alma maters. Legacy kids get admitted at a higher rate than the overall rate, but not at a higher rate than kids with comparable SATs, GPAs, or socioeconomic status. A friend was told as much directly by one of the Harvard admissions deans: There is no difference in admission rate to Harvard between the children of Harvard alumni and the children of Princeton or Yale alumni. My kids, both of whom were easily in the top 1% of SAT scores, went 0-4 on their legacy applications.</p>