I posted that article from 2012 because it might have been available to Jacobs at the start of his research. As I also said, the GSS happens every two years, and it has been asking these questions continuously since the 1970s. There were a ton of articles written about it this spring, when they released the 2018 data. On top of that, both political parties and lots of advocacy groups on either side of the debate poll regularly. This is an area that has been thoroughly, and very professionally, studied.
Jacobs asking slightly different questions adds little, if anything. His big insight that there’s a substantial middle ground in the debate has been everyone’s big insight for decades. And (like many others) he elides some big differences in that middle ground – say, between people who think that there should be unrestricted, elective abortion early in a pregnancy, and people who think that abortion should be available early in a pregnancy only in cases of rape, incest, or serious genetic defect, and only after counseling and a waiting period. Some of Jacobs’ basic premises are downright insulting, like the idea that pro-choice people don’t acknowledge a fetus’ humanity but might be convinced by polling data to do so.
Without knowing much about mediation theory, I know mediation does not work if the parties involved don’t want to resolve the dispute other than by a total victory. In the abortion debate, there are critical parties who are not interested in any outcome but total victory. Mediators don’t mediate under those conditions.
It’s questionable why some grand compromise is necessary. For most people this issue is not exactly tearing society apart; we aren’t on the verge of a civil war. Most people have gotten used to the idea that different people can make different choices, and that another person’s choice does not affect your integrity. It has become much easier both not to terminate a pregnancy and to terminate a pregnancy very early on a self-help basis (Plan B ). When – as I and pretty much everyone else expects – the current Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, there is going to be real diversity among the states’ responses, as we are already seeing now. A few states will have very permissive laws, many (but representing a small percentage of population) will enact total or near-total bans, and some will probably wind up in Jacobs’ middle. Which is more or less where everyone is today, based on the last few Supreme Court cases.