@bluebayou , your point is true if all test takers did take the same test on the same day, but they don’t. There are 2-3 test administrations from Oct of each year, each with different curves. That is the problem. It’s a work in progress for the College Board, but as it stands some test dates are just more favorable for test takers.
And I agree that the PSAT is meant to be a practice for the masses. National Merit Scholarship Corp is separate from the College Board. Hopefully the kids who fall short of the cutoffs (most don’t have their scores yet) will be able to keep it all in perspective in the grand scheme, and I’m sure they will.
Speaking of PSAT scores - any ideas as to why a GC would claim he/she does not have access to the scores? This is in reference to a very small school. I cannot imagine how this could be, given CB clearly states on their website the scores were released on Dec 2 to the schools.
I think GCs are busy keeping kids from failing out and writing college recs, so things like getting PSAT scores to parents early is not on their plate. They either don’t know where to look for the scores or don’t want to have parents taking up all of their time with requests.
Sigh. I certainly would understand if the upfront answer was that they have a policy of not releasing the scores for those reasons, as opposed to feigned ignorance. But then again, when we are talking maybe 15 or so juniors took the exam…oh well.
My S just received his PSAT scores from Oct 16 test. He made 3 mistakes and got 50 points taken out which seems to put him at 220 scaled score.
Our state cut off was 221 this year for NMSF. It seems his school told him today that the curve was tough for today’s results so there might be a drop for next year
Any guesses when we’ll know next year ?
Reason why we are sad is that the college program he is targeting looks for NMF as the most important criteria. He has 35 in ACT and expecting 1500+ SAT — though they might not matter for this program
Honestly, I don’t think anyone really knows because it all hinges on how all the kids in your state performed. Remain cautious, but don’t give up all hope whatsoever, because your son is very close.
That is quite a cutoff. I feel like I did pretty badly- 212- but everyone I know says that’s good. I guess that’s CC vs. a school haha. Congrats to your son, helperdad
My child received a 1470 with a 218 SI, we live in Florida. He had a perfect math score and missed 3 questions in reading section. Florida has been consistently around 219 SI for the past 3 or 4 years. Does anyone see the SI being lowered for the class of 2021? It sucks when your at this score and you have to wait 9 months to find out.
In same boat @firefly. My child missed only 3 (2 math and 1 reading) for a 1470 which is great and he should be (and is) proud of this. That said, his SI of 221 will probably fall short of NMF in California which has been at 222/223 in recent years. Kinda brutal to be so close.
Any idea whether the # of students taking the PSAT has increased over the years? Wondering how the # of NMF in a state, especially one with a growing population, ever changes?
@NWExpat same situation here for my son whose score is also 1470 with an Index of 221 based off CA. Crossing fingers for the cut off to go down by one point from the previous year of 222. Nonetheless we are proud of his achievement !
There is a similar conversation going on over at the National Merit ‘chatter thread’, so head over there as well if haven’t yet. My D is in a similar situation: she’s right at the bubble for our state SI, so I’m following this very closely.
Obviously, no one can say for certain, but Art Sawyer at Compass Prep is the expert, and has said in several comments that he thinks that the SIs may go down in several states. (Google ‘Compass Prep National Merit 2021’ to find his page and scroll ALL the way down to read all his comments.) I read somewhere (can’t remember where now) that preliminary state-level data will be released in Feb., so I don’t think we’ll know anything more until then. Fingers crossed for now.
@theloniusmonk : Yes, I know that the official announcements aren’t made until Sept. of senior year, and I’m sorry that I can’t recall where I read about prelim state level data being available in Feb.
So, in the interest of not being the source of false rumors, I dug around some more. Our guru Art Sawyer names April several times both in his blog and on his FAQ page as the next time any more College Board data will be released. He says that he may be able to make some educated guesses about state cut-offs by then, even though of course no one will know for certain until fall.
Bottom line: the next data drop will be in April. No more news until then.
We are in the same boat, my S got 1470/220 and hence missed by 1 point since Texas is 221. We have no hope since Texas population has exploded and we know of many kids nearby who made 221 or above.
We are now praying that his top choice program which looks at NMF, at least looks at his other parts of the App next year - including GPA, ACT, SAT , ECs etc
For those of us who felt the Oct 16th curve was pretty awful, see Art from Compass’s analysis that something went completely haywire. People have even called for audits. The College Board messed up pretty egregiously with a 30% drop (unprecedented) in 1400+ range scorers.
This hasn’t happened since 1975 and indicates a problem with the scaling, not the students’ performance.
The good news is, almost all states will see a drop on Cutoff and we’ll see a drop in Commended scores. The bad news is, if your kid took the 10/16 administration, he/she was likely at a large disadvantage for NMF.
But don’t take my word for it, see for yourself over at the Compass Prep Blog. Good luck to everyone.
