You have a zero chance if you do not apply. Apply and have other choices. Low chances perhaps but you will never know unless you apply. Many good students from WI who do not get into UW-Madison or U of Minn go to LaCrosse. Be sure to write good essays that show optimism, not pessimism for getting in. If you end up elsewhere you may discover it meets your needs well or you excel and choose to transfer.
Fact of life- not everyone gets into their dream school. Fine to reach but prepare to be happy elsewhere.