<p>jack: If your thesis is correct, then the acceptance rate of people who apply ED and are deferred would be significantly higher in the RD round. This is not the case. There is no evidence that if Brown is deciding between two similar students in the RD round, one who applied ED and the other who applied RD, it accepts the ED one. (In fact, I know of several cases at the high school where I do interviewing where the RD applicant was accepted and NOT the one who applied ED and was deferred.)</p>
<p>If you are not a legacy or an athlete, the advantage to applying early is that the pool of applicants is smaller and your application doesn’t get buried by the 23,000 RD ones. Remember that everyone who applies ED is expressing that level of interest, so it doesn’t help you in the first round. </p>
<p>And there are plenty of examples of students who apply ED, get deferred, get accepted RD – and then decide NOT TO GO! So Brown cannot assume that your level of interest remains as high after a deferral.</p>