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Again: because the pool will shrink, and the only people who will stay on the plan will be older, sicker people who want to keep seeing doctors at more expensive facilities, and who don’t qualify for subsidies or cheaper insurance via the exchange. New, healthy people can’t enter the plan; young people will tend to find better rates on the new plans; one-third of the participants on the grandfathered plans are eligible for subsidies on the exchange. </p>
<p>I mean, I’m ON the plan that GP wants to go back to (the one he gave up two years ago because the premium was too high). I’ve done the math, the rates on the exchange are roughly the same if you factor in an annual increase at the SAME level that Blue Shield has increased its rates every other year. </p>
<p>Additionally, a large segment of the pools on both plans (the one that I’m on and GP regrets leaving, and the one he is on now) are NOT grandfathered. That’s because historically Blue Shield increases its rates every year, and a lot of people have responded to rate increases by switching to less-generous, less-expensive plans; and of course, there are others who simply were late-comers to the plan.</p>
<p>I mean, it’s obvious that a smaller pool that allows people to see more expensive providers is going to have cost-control issues over time. </p>
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AFTER it has been in effect for a couple of years. But the grandfathered plans on the individual market are going to be like abandoned step-children – they will just get weaker and weaker as time goes on. It’s not the same with large employer group plans, because those plans can maintain grandfathered status while new employees come in. </p>
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I’ve gotten rebate checks too, but the rebate checks are always less than a single month’s premium. That just means that the insurance company is doing a good job of predicting costs, assuming that it wants to maximize premium dollars. </p>
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The accounting for each plan is internal – that is, my rates/rebate for plan A are determined by the spending on plan A in my region. </p>
<p>Again, GP wishes that he could go back and opt for a plan that will have fewer people than ever next year, and will have in theory have people seeking care at facilities that cost significantly more than the facilities serving the people in the other plans. Where is the influx of cash going to come from to keep that plan’s rates down? </p>
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NO, that’s the part you haven’t been paying attention to. GP was on Plan A with a $3500 deductible. The rates for Plan A went up, so in 2012 GP switched to Plan B with a $5500 deductible. I was on Plan C with a $5000 deductible but switched to Plan A back at the end of 2010, because the premiums were about the same but it looked like a better plan that the one I had. Both Plan A and Plan B are grandfathered plans that will continue to exist, but GP and I lost our grandfathered status when we switched plans after March of 2010. </p>
<p>In other words, neither one of us comes under the umbrella of Obama’s “promise” that we could “keep” our pre-ACA plans because both of us opted to give up our plans after ACA passage. </p>
<p>The plans will live on, but by definition the only people who can stay on them are people who were signed up on those exact plans prior to March 2010. That’s 4 years ago and the individual market is highly mobile - between 40-60% of subscribers on the individual market will change plans within a year. So the percentage of subscribers on the continuing plans who have grandfathered status has GOT to be vanishingly small – I’d be surprised if it were as high a 20%.</p>