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But on the individual market, only a very small fraction of people could possibly have grandfathered status. Reported stats are that 40-65% of people on the individual market leave their plans each year. So let’s be conservative, go with the lower figure (40% - we’ll take a sample of a 1,000 plan members as of March 2010. As of April 2011, 600 of those members remain. In another year, another 40% leave, and in April 2012, there are 360 left; by April 2013 there are 216 remaining. Of course the insurer has continued to sell plans and others have come in, but none of them have grandfathered status.</p>
<p>Now of that 216, let’s say half are available for subsidies on the exchange. They’re going to switch – the subsidy system not only gives them a lower rate, it essentially guarantees future rate stability if their income remains stable. So now out of the original grandfathered pool of 1000, you have 108 left - barely over 10%.</p>
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They were underwritten 4+ years ago. People don’t stay “healthy” forever – if they did, they wouldn’t need health insurance. Nor do people get younger. </p>
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It doesn’t matter whether they go to the exchange or buy direct from the company – everyone who is on the individual market in a non-grandfathered plan is now in a single risk pool.
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