<p>I think it’s important to keep in mind that a “pre-existing condition” is not the same as a chronic condition or current illness. </p>
<p>The term pre-existing condition refers to a determination that health insurers made based on past health history, as part of the process of assessing risk of future medical expenses. </p>
<p>So that term includes people who are currently ill or have high current medical expenses, but it also includes people who have no significant current medical needs (or expenses), but have some past diagnosis that simply means that they are at greater risk of needing future treatment. </p>
<p>So a person with a pre-existing condition is simply a person with a known risk factor that increases the odds of future medical expenses.</p>
<p>A person without any pre-existing condition is someone with unknown risks of incurring future medical expenses. </p>
<p>I think this is important because it changes the math. Yes, there were people with known, chronic conditions who were excluded from being insured in the past, but ACA is also going to bring an influx of new people who simply happen to be a riskier investment from the insurance point of view. </p>
<p>Also, I think that a large proportion of the sickest people with the most expensive chronic conditions may already be covered, primarily through Medicaid or Medicare, but also via employer coverage – because their need for treatment would pretty much require that they find some sort of coverage. Either they exhaust all their assets to pay for their dialysis or chemotherapy or whatever expense they have, and get to the point where they are sick enough and poor enough to qualify for SSI and Medicaid; or they have an employed spouse or parent who didn’t dare quit his job for fear of losing insurance. </p>
<p>I think the people with pre-existing conditions who went without insurance are likely to be people with less immediate needs. Some of them may have deferred treatment for a number of years, such as recommended surgery – and may rush to get that as soon as they can get a policy – but many may be people who were essentially stigmatized by something in their medical history that has little impact on their current medical needs. </p>
<p>Of course bringing all these people into the individual insurance market will change the profile of the risk pool, but I don’t know that it will have the high level impact that people fear. And again, the very sickest are likely to qualify for Medicaid, particularly in the expansion states-- in a sense, the new system even provides something of an incentive to qualify for Medicaid because of the elimination of means testing. It’s hard to sustain employment while seriously ill – and unemployed people, for the most part, are going to be Medicaid-qualifiers.</p>