<p>Are you assuming that those that enroll directly under ACA plans won’t be counted as ACA enrollees because they went to the insurance company?</p>
<p>They are being sold the metal tiers and in the end those who pay are those who will count.</p>
<p>“Hopefully, your facility with numbers doesn’t extend to betting on paid signups for the exchange.”</p>
<p>GP, although I am a shell of my former self (paraphrasing from a Marx brothers movie :))…
Sorry. 
</p>
<p>Texaspg, I have no idea what signing up for ACA means in your eyes, but I have said repeatedly that I did not sign up for healthcare using an exchange. I have not helped my bet. :)</p>
<p>We should have numbers talking about how many are newly insured.
There will be estimates about how many are still uninsured. It is way too early for these numbers</p>
<p>GP… That is great that your son loves what he ia doing.</p>
<p>Texas, our bet was limited to paid signups for the exchange only. I am much more confident that people who signed up directly with the insurance company will pay.</p>
<p>calmom and NJRes had insurance before and they will be using exchange for the subsidy. So what is the point of making a big deal counting them if they are just going to the exchange? They are not new.</p>
<p>Because Covered Ca. is touting how many people are signing up on the exchange in the last couple of weeks, and I don’t feel these signup numbers tell us much until we know how many will pay. Maybe all these people will pay but I am skeptical.</p>
<p>That will all be worked out texaspg.</p>
<p>You will get the numbers you want.</p>
<p>As far as the bet goes, that (people like calmom signing up) helps my side, doesnt it? ;)</p>
<p>How am I going to get the numbers? Who is tracking newly insured vs previously insured? I have not seen anyone publish them.</p>
<p>My view is it is a sucker bet to take any number without asking for specifics of who registered who did not have insurance in 2013 and clearly define the bet.</p>
<p>If the law got millions cancelled and they have no choice but to buy something meeting through exchange or agent but now is labeled a metal tier, it is simply relocation of paperwork.</p>
<p>If Calmom doesn’t pay, then all h*ll is going to break loose. :)</p>
<p>I would think in April (maybe earlier) Covered Ca will be able to tell us the number of people on the exchange who have plans. Remember, if people don’t pay, the plans are cancelled.</p>
<p>GP - you are missing the point. How is any of it relevant if it accounts for a bunch of people who have had insurance but are now buying through the exchange. How has that diminished the number of uninsured?</p>
<p>GP… :)</p>
<p>Texaspg, those numbers you want arent compiled yet. :)</p>
<p>It isnt Mar 31 yet.</p>
<p>GP, </p>
<p>I know I winked but I should get our numbers early. </p>
<p>No winking. I was told I am getting our numbers.</p>
<p>Why this arbitrary March 31st timeline? Is anyone tracking such numbers since people seem to be counting daily registrations without any issues?</p>
<p>Maybe, the numbers will come out earlier. If they do come out early, they will be incomplete.</p>
<p>I did not ask the specific question you want answered. We will be able to extrapolate numbers and get close enough to what you want.</p>
<p>I know the numbers for our bet are going to be tabulated early next year.</p>
<p>The March 31 deadline is the deadline to have coverage or pay a fine.</p>
<p>Texaspg, I am pretty sure one of the questions on the application is do you have insurance?</p>
<p>Not 100 percent sure.</p>
<p>Texas, March 31 is the end of open enrollment. So we should know by May 1 how many people who have signed up on the Ca exchange and have paid at least one month’s premium. </p>
<p>Whether people who sign up for exchange plans have had insurance in the past is going to be important I think regarding the bet I have with dstark. I am betting most of these people have not been insured in the past and will not pay for insurance, because even with the subsidy it is still pretty expensive. Covered California seem to think all these people will pay.</p>
<p>Sarah Kliff at the Washington Post interviews experts. They say that no one knows if Obamacare will increase coverage in January. They expect it will increase coverage in the long run.</p>
<p>[No</a> one knows if Obamacare will increase health care coverage next month](<a href=“http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/12/20/no-one-knows-if-obamacare-will-increase-health-care-coverage-next-month/]No”>http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/12/20/no-one-knows-if-obamacare-will-increase-health-care-coverage-next-month/)</p>
<p>I am not sure why it is so difficult to figure out if there are more insured or not.</p>
<p>You ask the insurance companies in a state how many people did you insure in 2013.?
How many had individual insurance? Employer insurance? How many aged out to medicare?
How many newborns are now covered? How many people signed up for medicaid?</p>
<p>Then 2014? All those questions… Plus how many signed up and paid on an exchange?</p>
<p>I think the insurance companies know who they insure. 
Eventually. :)</p>