<p>I don’t know, calmom. If your theory is correct, then we should see a huge surge in enrollment in March. Like, 20 million people enrolling on March 14. Because everyone who had a pent-up demand should have enrolled already by now, right? and only those people who don’t really want insurance have not already enrolled.</p>
<p>Oops, I should have written “March 30” not the 14th. I can’t keep the dates straight, and I read this thread and the news fairly often.</p>
<p>We will assuredly see a surge in enrollment in March, as the procrastinators sign up. But the magnitude of the surge is anyone’s guess. We don’t even know the magnitude of the December surge, because we don’t know how many people signed up off the exchange. I haven’t even seen educated guesses about the off-exchange signups.</p>
<p>
If the web sites had worked smoothly and if none of the plans that were due to expire on 12/31 had been extended, then you would be right. Not everyone, but certainly an overwhelming percentage. (Some people procrastinate no matter what, even when things are important to them).</p>
<p>But given the barriers that people had to overcome to sign up, I think there are probably a lot of people who want insurance and who have been waiting a long time to get it (pent-up demand), but got frustrated with the process of signing up and rationalized that they have gone X number of months/years without insurance, they can wait another month.</p>
<p>I’ve been having some issues lately with non health care websites giving me a hard time (nothing important really, just irritating), and I cannot imagine the frustration of people dealing with the health care websites. Then trying to call and getting put on hold forever, and going around in circles. I would have been screaming…and then just filling out a paper application long ago, accepting whatever I ended up with.</p>
<p>I think my H could do the six cookie challenge, easy. Once after a hike, he put down nine Krispy Kreme donuts in a four block drive to the freeway. And enjoyed every bite.</p>
<p>I havent had a Mrs Field’s cookie in a long time…maybe they have changed, but they were super chewy.</p>
<p>A Krispy Kream donut is easier to eat. However, 9 of them…I like them quite a bit…but…that might make me puke. :)</p>
<p>I am glad you mentioned 9 donuts. If you mentioned just 1 or 2, I might develop a craving. :)</p>
<p>True, a KK doughnut goes down easy. But every last one of them was enjoyed (I could tell by the moans), which counts for something too. You could probably swallow half a cookie at a time pretty easy too. Though I doubt you’d enjoy it that way.</p>
<p>"(I could tell by the moans)"</p>
<p>:)</p>
<p>^^While eating doughnuts. Get your mind out of the gutter! :D</p>
<p>Lol…</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Enrolling was not easy this year. You had to navigate the website, input a bunch of information, perhaps talk to exchange or insurance staff, and then choose from among a large number of options. This took quite some time and effort. So you think that more than half of the people who were willing to do all of that will end up saying, “Nah, never mind.” That doesn’t even make sense.</p>
<p>
I would have but I think I was disqualified from the bet because I’d admitted I would have absconded with Dstark’s cash if nominated to hold :)</p>
<p>Where did you say that park bench was again…I have some premiums to pay if BCBS-mi ever manages to get a bill to me :)</p>
<p>BTW, GP, I think an online PAY button would sink your bet for certain…if a large proportion haven’t paid yet, its likely because their insurer hasn’t managed to issue a bill!</p>
<p>I am not sure where the idea came from that the majority would sign up by 12/31, if they didn’t need to. I needed to, to avoid the cost of my Jan payment, under my indie plan. </p>
<p>There’s probably a large word-of-mouth going on now. Certainly, when lines are jammed and hold times increase, there is interest. I don’t think that can be denied. But speculating it’s a dummy effort, misleading, or won’t lead to enrollments or payments isn’t defensible.</p>
<p>As for “they won’t pay” or “probably” won’t (or the head-shaker, “they were paying anyway, so they don’t count,”) I can imagine how this line of naysaying could continue indefinitely. What’s the point? That some can tear it down?</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Or because the insurer hasn’t processed the application yet. We got a letter from Anthem on 1/4, and made payment on that date. However, they did not process his application until 1/10. So even though we DID pay on 1/4, DH would have been included in that “submitted application but didn’t pay” statistic for Jan. 7.</p>
<p>So the big 50% number on which Goldenpooch is pinning his hopes is likely a reflection of just how difficult it has been to pay the first month’s premium and/or the lag between payment and application of payment. Yes, I’m sure there are a few people who, after all the hassle of signing up, will change their minds. And there will be a few more who will simply give up in the face of the difficulty of paying (although I bet many of those will simply advance the coverage date a month or two). But Goldenpooch, I would bet that the lion’s share of that enrolled-but-not-paid number which you’re so excited about, is people who haven’t been able to pay but will, or people who have actually already paid.</p>
<p>Kmcmom13, :).</p>
<p>LasMa, we have real info. We dont have to listen to nonsense.
Have you checked out acasignups.net?</p>
<p>This is from Idaho…</p>
<p>People wait until the last minute.</p>
<p>[Tardy</a> Idaho health insurance buyers catch a break | The High Costs of Idaho Health Care | Idahostatesman.com](<a href=“http://www.idahostatesman.com/2014/01/11/2967263/tardy-insurance-buyers-catch-a.html]Tardy”>http://www.idahostatesman.com/2014/01/11/2967263/tardy-insurance-buyers-catch-a.html)</p>
<p>Good grief, KMC- I wonder if I’m getting YOUR BCBS-MI bills. I’ve received FOUR in the last week. 3 via email and one via snail mail. </p>
<p>I’m not sure what they’re all for. Haven’t sifted through yet. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, my fiance has received three different health insurance cards from Aetna and twice has received his huge plan packet in the last week.</p>
<p>What is going on with these insurance companies?! Oy vey!</p>
<p>ETA: Oh yeah, and now BCBS keeps canceling my auto bill pay. I had no problems all of last year but I had to pay my last bill manually and when I went to go look, my bank account was once again no longer listed.
I don’t like paying manually because I’m a forgetful person.</p>
<p>Romani, I suspect you would notice all the extra digits if you were receiving mine 
That said, feel free to help yourself to the park-bench-cash and pay it for me if you happen to get it!</p>
<p>LOL! As I said, I haven’t QUITE looked through the bills yet… I’ll let you know if my eyes bug out of my head at the numbers ;)</p>
<p>It’s not only raw numbers, it’s age and health. And so far the demo is skewing older by far.</p>
<p>NY Times has an article. Hard to copy and paste on iPad.</p>
<p>Skewing older is not a problem.</p>
<p>But also, skewing sicker that the underlying population, at this time, is probably not a problem. We don’t know what assumptions the actuaries made about the health of the new enrollees. I’d be surprised if the premiums are based on a risk pool that is exactly like the total population eligible for private insurance.</p>
<p>There’s another assumption I’m wondering about. How many people did the insurers think would sign up by now? Are enrollments below projected enrollments? Why are the insurance companies having so much trouble billing their new clients, if they expected a lot more new clients than they actually have? </p>
<p>Let’s say an insurer expected 70,000 new enrollees by now, but only has 40,000 enrollees. They can’t even bill the 40,000! They can’t even answer their phones! They’d have even been in more trouble if enrollment met their projections.</p>
<p>This makes me wonder whether enrollment is in fact above projections.</p>