<p><a href=“ConsumerWatch: Covered California Enrollees Complain Of Bait & Switch - CBS San Francisco”>http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2014/02/13/consumerwatch-covered-california-enrollees-complain-of-bait-switch/</a></p>
<p>I’m particularly interested in the number of people who got the cancellation notices, were told they would be rolled over into new plans by default, and said, “OK, whatever” and accepted the rollover. Nobody seems to talk about those folks, but inertia is a powerful thing.</p>
<p>If we are going to count how many people were formerly uninsured that are now insured, we do have to count medicaid. </p>
<p>An example, If we have 8 million people uninsured and 4 million of the 8 million sign up for private insurance and 4 million of the 8 million sign up for medicaid…we have zero uninsured. We cant drop the medicaid signees and say we have 4 million uninsured. That is not accurate. There are no uninsured in this example.</p>
<p>We can say 4 million signed up for private insurance out of the 8 million. That is accurate. </p>
<p>I was reading that historically 4 to 5 percent of people sign up for health insurance and dont pay. I dont have the link.</p>
<p>Charles Gaba, who is keeping track of sign ups, has started to use the 90 percent of sign ups will pay number. That is definitely better than using 100 percent which is wrong.</p>
<p>dstark - no one is discounting people who got insured via medicaid. However, as we have discussed repeatedly here, they have no deadline to enroll. They can walk in whereever on August 1st and be insured right away.</p>
<p>The uninsured not meeting the income criteria to go to medicaid do not have such luxury. Unless the administration provides one of those magical extensions they keep handing out to non-individuals on March 31st to say there is no deadline folks, they need to wait until next year.</p>
<p>CF - Depends on the price increase, which seems to vary wildly. We know a family who did that but it only went up about $100. If it was $500 they might have gone to the exchange. Who knows. </p>
<p>“dstark - no one is discounting people who got insured via medicaid. However, as we have discussed repeatedly here, they have no deadline to enroll. They can walk in whereever on August 1st and be insured right away.”</p>
<p>I think people are discounting. People dont want to count medicaid signees because they pay little to nothing.
You may not be doing this but others are doing this.</p>
<p>Okay, I’m not being mean here but I suppose it depends on what the plan is trying to achieve otherwise they could just send everyone a check. At the end of the day, isn’t cost a factor somehow in whether or not ACA “works”? </p>
<p>“I think people are discounting.”</p>
<p>The problem is two fold. Ensuring more are insured and ensuring healthcare.gov plans meet the enrollment numbers so insurance companies don’t send a large bill to we the taxpayers because the numbers are not being met. </p>
<p>People on CC are not the only ones that count. There is a large population out there wondering if the non-medicaid invinsibles are enrolling.</p>
<p>I am going to guess now because there is a lot of guessing and I want to win an award. (Charles Gaba is probably going to win an award. Maybe I can get an honorable mention. Except Calmom is going to get an honorable mention. I am going to have to knock her off. :)</p>
<p>There are about 1.8 million people in California that had individual private insurance coverage before ACA.
I think I read that 39 percent of these people were eligible for subsidies. Lets make it easier and say 40 percent are eligible. I am just guessing anyway. :)</p>
<p>So…that gets us to 720,000 people. Let’s say they all signed up on an exchange. Right now there are 728,000 signees on the exchange. That would mean there are only 8,000 newly insured that have signed up on an exchange. That sounds preposterous but that is ok. </p>
<p>If we end up with 1.2 million signees…and subtract the 720,000 already insured. We end up with 480,000. 80 percent pay. 384,000. Add 20 percent for off exchange signees who pay. That gets us another 76800 newly paid insured. </p>
<p>Now we are up to 460,800Newly insured. Then I double the amount becuase of medicaid. That gets us to 921,600 newly insured. </p>
<p>So there are going to be be 921,600 insured. I am not counting those under 26 who get to stay on their parents plans.
I am not counting 600,000 people in programs that were developed because ACA and are now shifted to medicaid.</p>
<p>There are a few things I didnt add or subtract like people signing up on an exchange that dont get subsidies and already had insurance. That is ok. </p>
<p>I think my numbers are close enough. </p>
<p>921,600 + newly insured.</p>
<p>Edit … I cant believe how many mistakes I had in here . I think this is good now. :)</p>
<p>dstark, in your handwaving calculations you should also compute the number of people who were insured but are now uninsured. You have about a million newly insured, but how many newly uninsured? We really want the net number here.</p>
<p>Our handwaving number for California for number of cancellation notices is a million. If we continue to wave our hands and say that half of them said, Yeah, whatever, and accepted the rollover, that leaves half a million uninsured. Even if none of them signed up anywhere else, still, half a million is less than 973,600.</p>
<p>CF, my calculations were slightly off.
921,600.</p>
<p>I have the cancellation issue covered. I wrote that every single person eligible for subsidies and who had insurance in Cal signed up on an exchange. Every single one. That is not going to happen.</p>
<p>I read that the amount of people that cancelled and are not signing up again is 10,000 people. That’s noise. There are links somewhere. Even if that number is bs…
If 10 percent dont pay… That is 100,000. I think that number is still high.</p>
<p>If the number was 500,000 we would know about it. Fox News would be giddy. If 500,000 didnt buy insurance we wouldnt be reading stories about some guy from Menlo Park. :)</p>
<p>I am just guessing. My number should be a range of numbers. </p>
<p>Something like this. There is more upside than downside to my numbers.
821,600 to 1121,600.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Source? I’ve been looking for data about that and haven’t found any. 10K sounds like a low number, though, but I’m just waving my hands here so what do I know.</p>
<p>On edit: I found this: 500,000 nationwide were cancelled and hadn’t signed up for new insurance as of Dec. 19.</p>
<p><a href=“Health insurance cancellation notices leave 500,000 uncovered”>Health insurance cancellation notices leave 500,000 uncovered;
<p>If that number is accurate, it would suggest that 10K is a vast underestimate for California, and 100K would be a better guess. </p>
<p><a href=“http://host.madison.com/special-section/health-fitness/copper-plans-health-law-backers-push-for-new-lower-premium/article_a7a589c2-59f9-5167-8beb-21e21e62397b.html”>http://host.madison.com/special-section/health-fitness/copper-plans-health-law-backers-push-for-new-lower-premium/article_a7a589c2-59f9-5167-8beb-21e21e62397b.html</a></p>
<p>Maybe these will help get the numbers up.</p>
<p>“Copper” plans would pay for 50% of the actuarial cost. Essentially, they’d be catastrophic plans. Bronze pays for 60% of actuarial cost, so Copper would be about 17% cheaper than Bronze. Not a game changer, I’d guess.</p>
<p>I should privide the source for the 10,000 number. If I find it i will. </p>
<p>Soeculative, but it is a 10,000 estimate for the United State. </p>
<p><a href=“http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/12/31/stunning-new-report-undermines-central-gop-obamacare-claim/”>http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/12/31/stunning-new-report-undermines-central-gop-obamacare-claim/</a></p>
<p>Yourr article is dated Dec 19. We have had 2 million sign ups on exchanges since then. There are off exchange sign ups. I am pretty sure we have millions more sign ups there.</p>
<p>Many of these people with cancellations quslify for subsides and are imcluded in my numbers. I included every single person eligible for subsidies including those with cancelled policies. </p>
<p>If those subsidy eligible people with cancellations dont sign up for any insurance, my 720,000 number of the previous insured is too hiigh and my. 480,000 newly insured sign ups are too low. It is all going to balance out. It is not going to balance out perfectly but it will be cloose enough </p>
<p>I am not writing a computer program here where if I type a . Instrad of a , the world blows up.</p>
<p>The 500,000 number is not going to be close to the mark. If it is 200,000 nationally, that isnt going to change my numbers. California would be close to 40,000 of that. I have enough slack in my so I dont have to wirry aboit it.</p>
<p>I think 200,000 nationally is too high a number. </p>
<p>Well… Since more people are choosing silver plans instead of bronze plans, i wonder what the market is really going to be like for copper plans. </p>
<p>I guess some people will be happy.</p>
<p>dstark - Expectation and reality need a merger point somewhere since exchange plans were built on the same back of the napkin calculations when they made up the premiums.</p>
<p>Lets wait for some real numbers if they do hold the deadline of March 31st.</p>
<p>Texaspg, we dont have to wait. As more and more info comes out, we can extrapolate. </p>
<p>My mumbers are very conservative. I dont like to over promise and under deliver. The 821,000 is in the bank.</p>
<p>The premiums were not witten on napkins. They were written after analysis. The premiums will be ok. Could be 10 percent off If the healthy dont sign up. But there are risk corridors…</p>
<p>Laffer came up with the Laffer Curve on a napkin with no analysis </p>
<p>Made a nice career for himself and others.</p>
<p>With a week or two to go if the numbers are a little short or there are technicsl issues I can see an extension coming. </p>
<p>dstark - Although I like your enthusiasm, I still need a citation from someone who is doing the counting. </p>
<p>All I am looking for is a count for previously uninsured people who signed up, outside of medicaid. </p>
<p>Then you are going to have to wait. </p>
<p>I dont need to wait. </p>
<p>Covered Ca is going to release a lot of info next week. I dont know if you are going to get what you want. Probably not.</p>
<p>My numbers are pretty low actually. They only look high compared to the dire stuff we read.</p>
<p>My numbers are not that different than Bob Lewzowski’s or whatever his name is . :)</p>