<p>"This statement by Peter Lee seems exactly right: “It’s both a short-term and a long-term, multi-year effort to change the mindset of the uninsured from a culture of coping into a culture of coverage.” </p>
<p>Oh please. What nonsense!</p>
<p>“Looks like 4 million newly insured to me”</p>
<p>You just pulled that number out of you know where. You don’t have a clue how many uninsured signed up.</p>
<p>“Colorado Obamacare enrollments dwarfed by cancellation notices”</p>
<p><a href=“Colorado Obamacare enrollments dwarfed by cancellation notices as Senate race heats up | Washington Examiner”>http://washingtonexaminer.com/colorado-obamacare-enrollments-dwarfed-by-cancellation-notices-as-senate-race-heats-up/article/2545619</a></p>
<p>The White House is releasing misleading numbers. What else is new.</p>
<p><a href=“How many have paid ACA premiums? - POLITICO”>How many have paid ACA premiums? - POLITICO;
<p>It’s official, the individual mandate is dead.</p>
<p><a href=“Administration adds major exemption for ObamaCare individual mandate | Fox News”>http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/03/13/administration-adds-major-new-exemption-for-obamacare-individual-mandate/</a></p>
<p>Old news, GP. We discussed the individual mandate change yesterday. No, it is not dead.</p>
<p>Why would I make up a 4 million number? If I was going to make up a number it would be higher. ;)</p>
<p>I dont know exactly but I can come close. And it doesnt matter what I say. The number is going to be around 4 million whether I say so or not. ;)</p>
<p>We can be pretty sure that 2/3 of the signees signing up now are previously uninsured.
There are people signing up that are stating they are previously uninsured. </p>
<p>We do have a couple of states that have pretty good reporting.</p>
<p>“We can be pretty sure that 2/3 of the signees signing up now are previously uninsured.”</p>
<p>We also have information suggesting that only 1/2 of them are paying.</p>
<p>That is old news. Because so many people that are newly insured did not have to pay yet …the number .5 or so is lower. It will rise. </p>
<p>The range is about 3 to 5 million now. It will tighten up as time goes.</p>
<p>I am basing this on The McKinsey survey… A third of all sign ups are off the exchange. (The state of Washington is 2/3 off exchange). A little more than 2/3 of sign ups are formerly uninsured. Most people that sign up pay by the end of Apr. We hit a little less than 6 million sign ups. </p>
<p>I am hoping the 1/3 off exchange sign up ratio is too low. That could have the biggest impact now along with percentage paid. </p>
<p>Ok…I can get the McKinsey numbers to almost fit the 1/3 off exchange sign ups. Close enough.</p>
<p>So here are the nunbers…If you dont like the numbers you can start below the dashed line or the double dashed line for the summary.</p>
<p>For Jan 10… 400,000 newly insured… 3,600,000 previously insured… 2.670,000 on exchange 1,330,000 off exchange…total 4,000,000.</p>
<p>feb 13, at. 1,520,000 newly insured… 4,080,000 previously insured…3,730,000 on exchange 1,870,000 off exchange…</p>
<p>Going forward…5,000,000 is the number of previously insured according to Mckinsey. McKinsey said previous insured was 72 percent in Jan which equals 3.6 million. 82 percent in Feb…rounded off 4,080,000 is 82 percent.</p>
<p>So that gets us 5,000,000. Not everyone of the 5,000,000 is going to sign up for various reasons… Let’s say 90 percent sign up…that is 4.5 million.</p>
<hr>
<p>So we take the on exchange sign ups plus add another 50 percent of that. Take that total and subtract 4.5 million…that is how many uninsured signed up…</p>
<h2>So, if 6,000,000 sign up on an exchange… 1/3 off exchange holds is another 3,000,000 making 9,000,000. Subtract 4.5 million… We have 4.5 million newly insured signing up…</h2>
<hr>
<p>So…
At 1/3 off exchange signups…
5.6 million sign ups on exchange… 2.8 million off exch…3.9 million newly insured sign ups…
5.8 million sign…2.9 million off exh…4.2 million newly insured sign ups…
6.2 million sign up…3.1 million off exc…4.8 million newly insured sign ups…</p>
<p>This doesnt subtract for those that dont pay…
If the off exchange ratio is higher and McKinsey is right about the 5,000,000…
The newly insured number can rise dramatically.</p>
<p>One example
On exchange and off exchange numbers are similar…
Let’s say… 6,000,000 sign up on exchange and 6 million sign up off exchange…
That is 12,000,000.
12,000,000- 4,500,000= 7,500,000 newly insured before payment.</p>
<p>This is why the off exchange numbers are extremely important. :)</p>
<p>I hope you were a better securities trader than statistician. :)</p>
<p>You cant understand what I wrote. :)</p>
<p>I was pretty good. ;)</p>
<p>I wondered about dstark’s 5 million as the number of people with private insurance in 2013. The Kaiser Foundation gives some corroboration. They report that in 2011 (latest data they show) 5.1 million people had private insurance coverage for the entirety of the year and no other insurance coverage. If you add in the people who also had another form of insurance in addition to private insurance, the number goes up to 5.9 million.</p>
<p><a href=“Data Note: How Many People Have Nongroup Health Insurance? | KFF”>http://kff.org/private-insurance/issue-brief/how-many-people-have-nongroup-health-insurance/</a></p>
<p>If you also consider the people who had insurance for part of the year, but not all the year, the numbers are considerably higher. It turns out, a lot of people bought insurance for part of the year. Fully 22.6 million people bought private insurance for some part of the year, including the people who had some other form of coverage as well.</p>
<p>Good enough to be able to afford 20,000 acres on Mount Tam, right? 
;)</p>
<p>Lol…</p>
<p>“They report that in 2011 (latest data they show) 5.1 million people had private insurance coverage for the entirety of the year and no other insurance coverage.”</p>
<p>GP… :)</p>
<p>CF, love that link. I am saving that link. Thanks.</p>
<p>dstark, when you’re searching for one of these numbers, always try the search with “Kaiser Foundation” in it,a s well as the bare search. Kaiser has a ton of research papers with lots of the numbers one wants.</p>
<p>CF, thanks . I really appreciate that. I am going to do that. </p>
<p>“No, it is not dead.”</p>
<p>It’s dead if the person has a functioning brain. </p>
<p>GP - have you filed that hardship paper yet? :D</p>
<p>We could have pleaded one family out today but for the 3 hour marathon call to marketplace that got our last problem family registered. </p>
<p>I don’t think we want to go into “functioning brains.” </p>
<p>Yay, Texaspg. </p>