<p>I bet we’d have less than 6.3 million paid plus unpaid. That’s clearly wrong, and we might have 6.3 million paid. (dstark, since I lose bets with you, would you be willing to bet me that the Sharks will win the big shiny thing? I’ll bet they won’t, and you’ll bet they will.)</p>
<p>That is high. Their insurance plans were probably not up for renewal yet. A tiny bit of procrastination. That is how I am reading it. 7 percent have not shopped. 11 percent have shopped but have not enrolled. </p>
<p>The next survey should show an increase above 82 percent. The percentages have been increasing. (Same chart). </p>
<p>CF, don’t be so negative. :)</p>
<p>I don’t want to bet on 6.3 million paid. That might be pushing it. 
Possible though. Hmmm probable…Hmmm</p>
<p>I want to see that next survey. :)</p>
<p>We could have 6.3 million paid, if we include the people who pay for policies they signed up for during the extension: someone makes an account today, signs up April 14, coverage starts May 1, they pay May 2 or whenever you have to pay for that policy. There could be 6.3 million paid.</p>
<p>The signup rate is a good example of what exponential means. The growth goes up so slowly, and then so fast. Exponential growth is not intuitive.</p>
<p>It’s not intuitive, Fang, but anyone could have foreseen it by looking at history; Romney care and Medicare D. And by consulting the human tendency to procrastinate. This surge doesn’t surprise me at all.</p>
<p>I figured there would be a surge before Jan. 1, because a lot of people wanted insurance for 2014 and procrastinated. But this surge is driven by people who want to comply with the law, or who kind of wanted insurance for 2014 but were willing to skip the first three months. I didn’t realize that those two reasons would be so powerful. </p>
<p>Now that I think about it, some people might have thought, I probably won’t get sick in the first three months of the year and if I do I’ll sign up then and there, but if I don’t sign up now and I get sick April 1, I’m out of luck until 2015. </p>
<p>Lets not forget the millions of dollars that are being spent in various ways to round up these sign-ups. It’s not exactly people just deciding to finally get around to buying insurance.That would be weird. </p>
<p>Why would I even want to forget the money and effort spent in outreach? It’s working! People who didn’t realize they could get insurance, or who didn’t know how to sign up, are being helped. </p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Flossy, I congratulate you for not being able to understand people finally getting around to doing something they think they ought to do. You must be one of those disciplined people who does things promptly. Good for you. That’s exemplary.</p>
<p>Over here at the Fang Center for Procrastination, on the other hand, we have no trouble at all understanding how people are just now getting around to buying insurance. We do not think procrastination is weird; we think it is normal. The Fang Center has several tasks that have not yet been done and are almost overdue. The Fang Center’s Director is, even as I type, procrastinating about getting on the bike and doing a long ride.</p>
<p>Yes. We can definitely see 6.3 million paid. </p>
<p>I have been fairly aggressive on here. I thought we were going to get to 6.6-6.7 million on exchange sign ups especially after Dec. That California hickup in Feb was a little bothersome. </p>
<p>Now, we are going to blow by that 6.6- 6.7 million. It is all whipped cream and cherry on the top now. If those 150,000 households in Cal that started accounts over a recent 3 day period really sign up and pay…I would bet more than 6.3 million pay. I guess Xerox is saying they can sign up 50,000 people in Nevada after Mar 31. Yeah… 6.3 million is very doable.</p>
<p>LasMa, yeah. :)</p>
<p>I like twitter. Not just because of this. </p>
<p>From healthcare.gov
“High call center volume right now. System will now allow consumers to leave their info to be contacted later when we can serve them.
9:57am - 30 Mar 14”</p>
<p>I realized I shouldn’t be looking at the healthcare.gov statements thinking about my time zone. The huge majority of people in healthcare.gov states are in the Eastern or Central time zones. California, Washington and Oregon have their own exchanges. Well, California and Washington have exchanges, anyway, and Oregon has paper, sigh. People are signing up Sunday, mid-afternoon. That makes sense. And the surge will probably continue until 10 or 11 pm Eastern.</p>
<p>Yes </p>
<p>CF, you probably saw this </p>
<p>“In fact, despite all the problems — the botched rollout, the computer glitches, the furor over some canceled policies — Obamacare may have already brought the biggest increase in health coverage in this state since the 1960s, when the Medicaid program for the poor first passed.
Statewide, about 375,000 people have insurance due to this law. That’s the net gain, counting those who had their policies “canceled” last winter (most simply signed up for a new one with their same company).”</p>
<p><a href=“http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2023258743_westneat30xml.html”>http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2023258743_westneat30xml.html</a></p>
<p>I think texaspg will like this.</p>
<p><a href=“Impressive lines suggest first day iPad 2 sales could hit 500k, analyst says | AppleInsider”>http://appleinsider.com/articles/11/03/11/impressive_lines_suggest_first_day_ipad_2_sales_could_hit_500k_analyst_says</a></p>
<p>"This sounds like the person got one of those letters that said their plan was cancelled, and they would be moved to a new plan unless they notified Blue Shield, and then they did nothing. Or perhaps the letter never reached them, or their response never reached Blue Shield, but in any case they were moved to the new plan. My guess is, there are a lot of people who were sent those letters, who did nothing, and who were moved to new plans.’</p>
<p>CF, I have been chatting with you for months and as much as I like you, you got to admit this post by you is one of the most obtuse I have read on this thread. Whether you did anything or not after you were sent this letter, you were INVOLUNTARILY moved from the plan you liked to a plan you didn’t like. To suggest otherwise, you are either purposely oblivious or really do not understand what took place these last 6 months, which is really scary.</p>
<p>BTW, for you to suggest the insurance companies were experiencing the same level of difficulties (or complete meltdown) before obamacare is either intentionally dishonest or a colossal mistake on your part.</p>
<p>I would urge people to look at the insurance company’s Facebook site or for that matter even Covered California’s Facebook page to understand how this law has turned people’s lives upside down. Thousands if not millions of people have literally been tortured by this law.</p>
<p>Fang, over here at the LasMa Center for Procrastination, we haven’t even begin to think about taxes yet. Yes, we know the deadline is coming up fast. Yes, we know there will be a penalty if we don’t do it, and do it on time. Yes, we could have done it two months ago and avoid the last-minute rush. And yet, we will undoubtedly wait until around April 13 to start, because that’s when it will hit our “urgent” list. </p>
<p>Same thing for hundreds of thousands of people who are just now getting around to signing up for health insurance, apparently. That’s real life. It’s hit the Urgent list. </p>
<p>The insurance companies have too many customers. :)</p>
<p>Tortured? Thousands if not millions?<br>
Ya know, our employer health insurance plan shifted several times over the years, with no input from us. We did get an employer notice that, during open enrollment, we could make a change, if we wished. But that otherwise, that was that.</p>
<p>I have to admit posting on this thread is like talking to a brick wall. I feel like I am interrupting a religious revival for the supporters.</p>
<p>LOL. Since the deadline keeps moving, over here in Flossyland we wouldn’t be worried about it, yet. If it’s a numbers game they’ll take all comers at any time. There are no rules.That is obvious.</p>