<p>I’m still trying to track down the regulation that TatinG, relying on an Investor’s Business Daily report, said " slows the growth of premiums on subsidized exchange plans," thus costing the US government $7 billion over ten years. I asked TatinG for specifics on this claim, and got a link to an article which has the claim. The article gives, as its source, a link to the 115 page Federal Register guidelines issued May 27. That’s not exactly a specific cite.</p>
<p>I think I now understand what the relevant regulation is. It has nothing to do with slowing the growth of premiums on subsidized exchange plans. It has nothing to do with subsidies or the exchange at all.</p>
<p>Rather, it is a regulation about how the government will calculate the required contribution percentage. The required contribution percentage (RCP) is the percentage of income a person is required to pay to get insurance. If the cost of available insurance is higher than the required contribution percentage, then the person is exempt from the individual mandate and doesn’t have to pay a tax penalty if they don’t have insurance. </p>
<p>So for example, this year the RCP is 8%. If the cheapest insurance a person could buy would cost more than 8% of their income, then they don’t have to buy insurance and they don’t have to pay a tax penalty.</p>
<p>Health care costs are going up faster than inflation, so to allow for this, the RCP will go up every year. The HHS regulation spells out exactly how the RCP goes up each year. </p>
<p>The RCP is designed as a measure of insurance affordability. A higher RCP means more people will be deemed to be able to afford insurance. So with a higher RCP, more people who don’t buy insurance will face tax penalties and the government will make more revenue.</p>
<p>The new regulation computes the RCP in a different way than the Congressional Budget Office predicted, and in a way that tends to produce a lower RCP. This means that fewer people will be liable for tax penalties, and the government will take in less revenue, an average of $700 million a year less, says the Investors Business Daily. Notice that although $700 million would be a lot of money for a person, for the federal government, it’s pocket change. A change to health care subsidies would cost or save orders of magnitude more money than that.</p>
<p>Here’s the Federal Register that contains the new regulation (and a whole lot more):
<a href=“Federal Register :: Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act; Exchange and Insurance Market Standards for 2015 and Beyond”>https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2014/05/27/2014-11657/patient-protection-and-affordable-care-act-exchange-and-insurance-market-standards-for-2015-and</a></p>
<p>Here is the relevant paragraph in the Federal Register:
<a href=“Federal Register :: Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act; Exchange and Insurance Market Standards for 2015 and Beyond”>Federal Register :: Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act; Exchange and Insurance Market Standards for 2015 and Beyond;
<p>This is TatinG’s Investors Business Daily link that inaccurately characterizes the change:
<a href=“http://news.investors.com/politics-obamacare/053014-702827-new-hhs-regulation-raises-obamacare-cost-by-7-billion.htm”>Error - Investors.com;
<p>Here’s a short explanation of what is happening (scroll down to Required Contribution Percentage):
<a href=“http://dmec.org/2014/05/30/exchange-and-insurance-market-standards-for-2015-and-beyond/”>http://dmec.org/2014/05/30/exchange-and-insurance-market-standards-for-2015-and-beyond/</a> </p>