ITA with @cptofthehouse : apply to TWO rolling admission/ EA schools now that have your major and that you know you can afford. Afford means you can pay the listed tuition/R&B out of pocket OR you qualify for a auto merit award that makes it affordable. Use the fed loan and job money for living expenses.
Examples of the first: instate schools, maybe flagship, maybe directional
Examples of the second: Alabama, Arizona, Miami OH, New Mexico, Alabama - Huntsville
This means even before ED day, you KNOW you have the option of going to an affordable college next year, even if it’s not your first choice.
Do NOT wait until you have discussed an ED financial aid offer with Duke (and turned it down), to then start applying for these types of schools. A lot of merit money is handed out first come, first served; in addition, places on specialist programs often have a much earlier deadline eg December than general admission. You do not want to miss out on this.
I would spend much more time on finding these two early action/ rolling admission affordable schools than on trying to second guess what the Duke FA office will offer you.
Good luck