Agree with @blossom - Duke is a ‘wow, that would be amazing’ but it is unlikely
My D applied to Princeton because $ looked OK. She did her best on the app but knew it was a financial and admission super reach. She sent in the app and forgot about it. She was rejected, which produced little more than a shrug and a big hug from me. Her admission but financial rejection from Boston College she wasn’t bothered about as she only applied as dad went there. He got the big hug from me 