<p>
</p>
<p>The relevant consideration here should be how common it is to take AP’s during sophomore year at the OP’s high school.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Of course, the problem is that the aspects that matter beyond what the OP has shared here cannot be safely shared and/or are too subjective for anyone’s reaction online to be meaningful. </p>
<p>
</p>
<p>If the craziness you refer to is meant to imply the seeming randomness of admission, I think the factors you mention explain a few of the cases. But in my experience, most applicants with competitive stats for top colleges do write strong essays; at the least, surely enough do so that there must regularly be subjectively (bordering on arbitrarily) founded distinction among applicants with highly compelling applications.</p>
<p>As for your idea that non-genuineness is a valid attribution for many application rejections: To whatever extent non-genuineness exists (rather high, in my speculation), admissions officers’ capacity to sense it accurately is rather questionable.</p>