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<p>It’s a crapshoot in the sense that your chances are increased if you happen to be a sprinter or a bassoon player applying in a year when the track team needs a sprinter and the orchestras need bassoon players. In that sense you are lucky. But it’s not a crapshoot in the sense that the admits are chosen at <em>random</em> from among the qualified applicants. A true crapshoot would be simple randomness - like dice thrown in a game of craps. </p>
<p>The adcoms choose for a reason, in this example because they are sprinters and bassoon players. But these reasons are not evident to outside observers such as us. So to us it <em>looks</em> random.</p>