Nobody knows for sure how schools will be evaluating candidates without tests. I think that those with sterling applications but who are weak on tests are going to have a better chance of getting into the top schools. However, folks have been telling me that those kids with the top test scores tend to have the best applications even minus the test scores. I know what they mean because I’ve kind of seeing the same. The kids that got into the very top schools that I knew had attributes that made them top contenders for that outcome even without knowing their test scores.
Something that is very important in the application is where you stand in your school. What kind of school is this and how do you stand in terms of being one of the very top students? Are you taking the most difficult classes and going beyond them? Would your counselor present you as one of the most amazing students ever, that you are head and shoulders above the other students? Are you truly one of the very best? It’s not a matter of whether these students have a shot of getting into these schools , but surprising if they do not. Frankly, I don’t see that with you from what you have presented. How is your GC reacting to your college list? Is s/he saying , “Abso-frigging-lutely, you should. You belong at MIT”, or is it a better of , “Well, without the test scores and with these unusual circumstances , you might have a shot”.
I’m sure there is a lot more to your application and you certainly should apply to all of these schools. Give it a try. Buy those lottery tickets. Just make sure you have some realistic choices on your list and that you render some enthusiasm, give them some time and research, so that you have the demonstrated interest there. Also make sure you have some good safety schools that are affordable. That is the crux of college search. Finding schools without the awesome names that you can find interesting and where you would like to go. Anyone can get excited about the schools you have listed. Not so easy with some unknown names. That’s the hard part of finding a balanced list.