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<p>Uh…no.
If I did we wouldn’t be having this, er, “conversation” now would we?</p>
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<p>Mom. At best you were doing the work of a someone with a “Palm Reader” sign in the front of their yards. I may have a Ph.D. in Physics for you all you knew then–or know now. At worst, of course, you were being something else.</p>
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<p>Apparently, you don’t even know what a “strawman” is…</p>
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<p>Really?..Sometimes when one sees insults hurled, the “hurler”'s point is often not even bothered to be read. Then you, of all people, should see the error of Detroit’s ways. </p>
<p>Alas…</p>
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<p>You don’t.</p>
<p>My Google instance must not be working correctly, could you please give us a list of currently available $20,000 electric cars? Or, a list of those currently under final stages of development from a reputable (read “likely to actually follow through”) manufacturer? I’d be interested in looking into them in more detail. Take your time – I’ll wait.</p>
<p>As an aside, Tesla had delivered the first of their LI cars and has many more currently in production [ this is NOT a $20,000 car however]</p>
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Yeah - it’s around $100K and it was repeatedly delayed. One interesting delay is that it had so much immediate torque that it tore up the transmission. I think Tesla made some improvements but didn’t really solve it and instead released anyway knowing they might have to replace the tranny (or maybe they finally solved the issue). It’s a car I wouldn’t mind having but not at $100K. It’s kind of amusing they bother to state the low per-mile cost (.02) on their website for a $100K 2 seater car.</p>
<p>I do hope they make it though and can translate the technology into a less expensive vehicle like they have planned.</p>
<p>menloparkmom: Have you gone to their showroom and seen it?</p>
<p>The stories I’ve read in the auto press say that Tesla’s cost of procuring those lithium-ion battery packs is about $25,000 each. Bringing that down is going to be a major challenge.</p>
<p>yes, I have seen it and it IS pretty cool. they are now developing a 4 passenger sedan based on the Mercedes C class body[ Telsa bought a new C class from Autobahn motors recently] the lower price for the 4 passenger model is predicated on the price of LI Batteries coming down as LI production increases world wide.</p>
<p>I came across an article from the Detroit Free Press today that said that the relatively small lithium ion battery pack in the Chevy Volt costs GM $10,000 per unit. Given the sort of normal markup expected from manufacturing to the market place, this would normally show up as at least $15,000-20,000* in the final product. The rest of the car would have to sell for (not cost) $5,000 to build a hybrid (not pure electric) car selling for $20,000.</p>
<p>*I am not that privy to cost/sell relationships in the auto industry, so there is some hand-waving here. In most manufacturing companies that $10k cost would add more like $50k to the final product sales price.</p>
<p>I know a lot of people are putting stock in a magical reduction in battery prices. The life cycle cost of energy from batteries hasn’t been going down (anyone bought a replacement battery for a notebook computer lately?). I can’t think of what would cause a price reduction to happen, absent the sort of technical breakthrough that the experts are saying may take decades. Just because we need and want better, cheaper batteries doesn’t mean that physics will cooperate. I would welcome credible explanation for why batteries are going to get cheaper.</p>
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<p>When you mean Japanese - do you mean just Honda/Acura and Toyota/Lexus or does that include Nissan, Mitsu, Suzuki, Scion - which all don’t have that great of reliability record recently (and even Toyota has been getting some dings in the reliability dept.)?</p>
<p>What has hurt the Big 3 is that they have been ignoring their cars for too and instead, have concentrated on pumping most of their development $$ into trucks and SUVs.</p>
<p>Aside from the rebadged Saturns (Opel/Vauxhall), the only really competitive cars that the Big 3 offer are the Malibu, the CTS, the Focus (which, btw, is ugly as sin) and maybe the 300C (which is getting on in age).</p>
<p>Note that the only competitive small car is the Focus.</p>
<p>GM doesn’t have a competitive small car (compact or subcompact) - the Chevy Cruze is a year or two away and GM still hasn’t decided whether the Chevy Beat will make it to the US market.</p>
<p>Ford has the Focus which is pretty decent (aside from the horrendous styling), but other than that, their cars are pretty lackluster.</p>
<p>The 500, er Taurus, is not on the same playing field w/ the Accord, Camry, Altima and Sonata (which is a shame b/c Ford used to have the best selling mid-sized sedan before they starved it to death).</p>
<p>On the bright side - Ford has finally decided to bring over some of their excellent European cars.</p>
<p>Chrysler/Dodge - well, not much to say about them except that they are in real big trouble (which is why they are in a hurry to import Chinese-made small cars into the US).</p>
<p>K&S, the Fusion is a pretty nice piece, and Ford offers it with AWD, too, which is pretty rare. I nearly bought one last year, but I just didn’t like how they had the transmission programmed. How they could fit a modern 6-speed computer-controlled transmission with shift points so poorly chosen is beyond me. I drove two just to make sure the first one wasn’t broken. It was a pity, really, as I really liked the car other than that, and having AWD comes in really handy living in the hills in the winter. So… I didn’t buy anything.</p>
<p>Overall, I agree. Unlike Toyota, which was willing to buy its way into a new market by dumping hybrids at a loss year after year, the dedication of a full-line maker to single strategy certainly shows lack of vision.</p>
<p>An aside, despite what I hear about Japanese reliability, I currently or recently (last 15 years) have owned a Honda, a Mazda, a Subaru, a Chevy, and a Ford and the cost of repairs has been pretty much the same, except the Honda which has rung me up for a $3,000 transmission repair (at 79,000 miles) and a recent gouge for nearly $2,000 in exhaust components. I might change my mind later, but right now I wouldn’t take a Honda for free.*</p>
<p>*Well… OK, I would for free.</p>
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There is also a market for a $20K time machine, airplane & spaceship.</p>
<p>Not to mention a $20K Orgasmatron.</p>
<p>On S way up to Seattle on Sunday, he and moomy bought a Prius. He gets the 10 year camry to polute Seattle, and Mommy gets the Prius, Four month wait, and only 10 people ahead of us for Prius, option2. Premium price tag over a nicely equiped Camry.</p>
<p>A few years ago, I asked S if the big automakers recruited at CMU. Yes, but why would an engineer join a dying industry?</p>
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<p>The Fusion was competitive when it first came out.</p>
<p>While still a nice model, the Fusion doesn’t stand out in any way (the Malibu stands out for design of the sheetmetal and large interior space) and is a bit underpowered w/ fuel economy that isn’t the greatest.</p>
<p>Now, the Camry doesn’t really stand out in any way either (other than maybe having a “squishy” ride w/ a bit of body roll) - but people buy the Camry en masse due to Toyota’s rep for quality (despite the V-6 Camry being a bit trouble-prone).</p>
<p>Aveo beats hybrids in ‘true costs’</p>
<p>In a new study by the automotive consumer Web site Edmunds.com detailing the “true costs of vehicle ownership,” no hybrids even ranked in the top 10 among the least-expensive vehicles to operate.</p>
<p>The hybrid highest on the list of the least-expensive vehicles to drive —- the Honda Civic —- was 14th among all vehicles; the next hybrid on the list was the Toyota Prius, at 34.</p>
<p>The least-expensive vehicle to operate, according to Edmunds, is the subcompact, gasoline-powered Chevrolet Aveo. Its base price of $12,170 and EPA fuel-economy ratings of up to 34 miles per gallon gave it a per-mile operating cost of 42.7 cents, or $6,405 a year (based on 15,000 miles and a fuel price of $4.06 a gallon).</p>
<p>In comparison, the best-selling hybrid —- the midsize Prius sedan —- costs 50.3 cents per mile, or $7,545 a year, to operate, even though it has the best fuel economy of any car on the market —- a combined city/highway rating of 46 mpg…</p>
<p>But consumers are going for small gasoline-only cars with great fuel economy at a faster clip than hybrids, Toyota dealers say, citing the Toyota Corolla compact and Yaris subcompact as top-selling models.</p>
<p>The fuel crisis has pushed Honda’s compact Civic to its current position as the top-selling vehicle in the U.S. market. In May, the Civic knocked the Ford F-series pickup out of the top spot, where it had reigned since 1992.</p>
<p>The gasoline-powered Civic sedan, with a base price of $14,810 and fuel economy of up to 36 mpg, came in fifth on the list of least-expensive cars, at 45.5 cents per mile, or $6,825 a year. But its gasoline-electric-powered sibling, the Civic Hybrid, costs 47.6 cents a mile, or $7,140 a year, Edmunds reported.</p>
<p>“The trick is to know what you’re getting,” said Edmunds Chief Executive Jeremy Anwyl. “If you’re looking for the car with the lowest cost to operate, a hybrid probably isn’t the solution. In terms of absolute low cost, the Chevy Aveo is the best value in America.”</p>
<p><a href=“http://www.ajc.com/cars/content/printedition/2008/08/08/carhybrids.html[/url]”>http://www.ajc.com/cars/content/printedition/2008/08/08/carhybrids.html</a></p>
<p>Washie, Phd says:
"Have you done the math on hydrogen? Lots of people have and the answer is that it would be a good solution if you don’t care about global warming and were willing to spend a few hundred billion dollars building a distribution system. The current gasoline-distribution system has taken 100 years to build. It was at least 30 years before it was really a nationwide system. Where will the money come from to build a similar hydrogen production and distribution system? Should manufacturers build a vehicle that can’t get fuel in 99% of the country? How much would it cost to build a fuel cell vehicle? How many hydrogen cars should you build waiting for a fuel delivery system? And, why do you make the assumption that hydrogen will be a lower operating cost fuel than gas? Maybe hydrogen vehicles will cost $5 per mile to operate because of the inefficiency of using energy to convert a substance to another form which can then be used to generate energy? Why not just use the energy directly instead of using it to make hydrogen? Everyone who has seriously looked into this know that hydrogen is an energy-transfer system, not a source. (In fact, fossil fuels are just solar energy from millions of years ago, stored in the form of crude oil.)</p>
<p>The Tesla is probably the most practical (if a 2-passenger vehicle that can’t carry a week’s grocery is “practical”) all-electric car coming to market right now. Do you want to spend $100,000 for a car? The battery pack ALONE in the Tesla costs something like $25,000 – and that’s the cost to the manufacturer, not retail cost. Hmm, why won’t those stupid manufacturers adopt a technology that only a teeny-tiny portion of their customer base can afford? They sure are stupid.</p>
<p>Despite what a lot of folks think, technology doesn’t happen because you really really reallyreally believe you can “come up with something.” Ask all those PhD scientists who have been working on commercial fusion power for 50 years.</p>
<p>I know Ford was working on low-cost, high energy batteries in the mid-70s. They abandoned it as unfeasible. A leading engineering manager for GM, who is bringing the money-losing Chevy Volt to market in 2010 (for something like $30,000 - or nearly twice what you would pay for a nice Honda Fit of similar capacity) recently said that he was optimistic about electric technology, and that it would only be another two or three decades until electrics could compete economically with ICE-powered cars. This was an engineer, not one of the “stupid” top executives to which you are referring.</p>
<p>In essence, you haven’t done your homework, and your position is, at best, really poorly informed. "</p>
<p>Washie,
How’s that Ph.D in Physics going for ya’?</p>
<p>[Cold</a> Fusion Is Hot Again - CBS News](<a href=“http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/04/17/60minutes/main4952167.shtml]Cold”>http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/04/17/60minutes/main4952167.shtml)</p>
<p>With 60 Minutes just one step above Star Magazine for reliability I’ll wait for a more thorough review.</p>