<p>I think that to argue against the auto-admit argument, you have to say either that there are significantly more than 18 in this category who are not being admitted already, or you have to say that there are (1740 - # of USAMO-scorers) who are more suited for admission to MIT than “my” 18.</p>
<p>There are more than 100 seniors who qualify for USAMO, in a typical year. Only about 300 now qualify all together. That leaves about 200. Now, of the 200, many are younger than 11th grade. It doesn’t seem reasonable to me to assume that none of those younger than 11th grade qualify again. You can pick your own % of those who qualify in 10th grade or below and do not re-qualify. (The qualification standards for those who qualify through AMC10 + AIME have been raised to prevent this from happening at all, though it happened occasionally in the past.) </p>
<p>Then if you take 100 + (your percent of those who qualified in 10th grade or below but did not requalify) times 100, you will have an estimate of the entire set of possible applicants in a year who could potentially meet my auto-admit standard.</p>
<p>Next, do you assume that it’s only the seniors who score 0 on the USAMO? If not, you need to reduce the number a bit, depending on the point threshold for USAMO (1 point, 4 points, or higher). What fraction of the students do you think apply to MIT? Even if it were a sure thing, I don’t think all of the students would apply.</p>
<p>Next, what % do you think are admitted already? MIT does take some of the USAMO-qualified students. I would guess that it takes more than half. How many do you want to rule out for having disqualifying features? How many are you left with? If you do come up with a much larger number, I am interested in your intermediate steps; it seems improbable, but if it were a very large number, I would reconsider.</p>
<p>I would doubt that there are more than 200 students in the country (counting even those who have never heard of the AMC tests) who are intellectually stronger for a math-intensive field than the USAMO-qualified group. Even if you stretch this to 1000 students who are more qualified, when you consider the total number that MIT admits, I can’t see how the 18 don’t get in.</p>
<p>It’s not a linear arrangement by a score on a particular test, Pizzagirl; it’s just that I would be so strongly impressed by a high-schooler who did well on these questions that I wouldn’t have any doubt he/she should be in the 1740 +/- MIT admits.</p>
<p>Similarly, I don’t have any doubt that McKayla Maroney is one of the top 1740 athletes of her birth-year-cohort, despite the expense of gymnastics training, limited opportunities for some to participate, large number of athletes in other fields, the fact that she’s not an all-round competitor in women’s gymnastics, etc.</p>