<p>OK, let me address this issue, as I have intimate knowledge of the issues facing current fighter assignments for junior officers and career progression based on my job. Even a WSO like me can give you a basic understanding of the issues the AF is dealing with. </p>
<p>First off here is a good bit of information from the folks who work the F-15E assignments at the AF’s Military Personnel Center (MPC) about the situation:</p>
<p>The Combat Air Force is short on fighter aircrew (approximately 4300 fighter billets with only 4000 fighter aircrew in the AD inventory), therefore; fighter assignments are heavily requirements driven. The CSAF has directed 100% manning for all Operational and FTU cockpits, ALFA tours, and UAVs. Fighter staff has become the shock absorber for the shortage of fighter experience, which means fewer opportunities for Officer Professional Development on the staff. Based on this shortage, fighter pilot production has been held at maximum levels for the past several years and average time-on-station (TOS) for fighter pilots has been driven below 3 years. At the same time, the number of operational fighter cockpits has been reduced (with further reductions expected from BRAC / QDR). This has led to an over-absorption problem in the CAF, where operational manning has been forced above 100% in order to keep a minimum number of experienced pilots in fighter cockpits to train the large number of inexperienced pilots. The end result of over-absorption, over-manning, lower TOS, and recent flying hour reductions is that some fighter pilots are finished their first fighter assignment without becoming experienced. Concurrently, the overall requirement for experienced fighter pilots has remained relatively stable despite the decrease in fighter cockpits. (Taken directly from the F-15E assignments page on MPC’s web-site)</p>
<p>OK, what does this mean in plain language? Simply stated, we currently have too many requirements and not enough pilots to fill them (WSO are picking up some of the slack by acting as Air Liason Officers (Army advisors) and jobbs on the staff, but they are not going to UAVs as flyers anymore (without a civilian rating) and they obviously can’t be intrucotr pilots at UPT). NOw your question to me is: “Wait a minute! We have too FEW pilots, and they’re cutting production?” IN a nut shell, YES, and here’s why.</p>
<p>With the CSAF’s decision to man all the pilot requirements, to include UAVs (which are growing in numbers), we are forcing our first term pilots to leave their first operational assignment earlier than usual (2 yrs, 8 month point versus the old standard of 3 year tours). This is bad, as they usually are not able to achieve enough hours to be considered “experienced” (need 500 hours) or have enough time to progress to higher leadership positions like 4-ship flight lead or the higher rating of instructor. The AF has a situation now where experienced pilots are at a premium, because you don’t want a squadron where there is too large a number of inexperienced flyers (we like to keep it under 40% so we can stay “combat ready”). Experienced pilot are being kept form jobs outside the fighter cockpit, so it hurts even more as hihger ranking guys, who normally fill the jobs outside of the fighter squsadrons are no longer available for those jobs, so the younger guys are picking them up. </p>
<p>Bottom Line: To keep experience levels manageable, since we have a shortage of experienced flyers, we need to have less younger guys in the squadrons. So, even while we’re reducing cockpit numbers (aging fleet, didn’t get the full complement we wanted of F-22s, F-35s still years away), we ALSO need to reduce the number of new pilots we’re producing at this time.</p>
<p>Notice I said “at this time”. We’e been through this before (the famous “bathtub” from the late 90s, whiich I can talk about on another pot if you want), and the AF is working overtime to try to fix the problem. Some things we’re looking at: Making the first operational tour for all new pilots (and WSOs) four years (which is the preferred solution for every commander except MPC), opening up the UAVs to a whole new career field of “specially trained” (read: not a full UPT) pilots and or WARRANT OFFICERS (yes, we’re even considering bringing THAT back!), making a professional ALO career field for officers, and other programs to reduce the strain of requirements that are outside of flying fighters.</p>
<p>But what does this mean for you young men and women who are apllying or thinking of applying to the AFA iin order to become a “fighter jock”. Well, unitl the GWOT is finished (and that ain’t happening fo a while) we still have some requirements downrange to fill that will take away from flying. As to UAVs, yes they are COMING. Yes, the number will increase as they pick up more missions. But, NO, they will not be taking the place of the F-15s, F-16s, F-22s, and all the rest soon. These planes are on the books for at least 20 more years (or longer in some cases). Yes, we are looking to add strike capabilities to the UAV fleet , but other missions like Air Dominance (Offensive and Defensive Counter-Air) and others like CAS and SAR are still years away from a guy in a trailer being able to do it. (I wouldn’t be suprised to see a remote tanker or transport first)</p>
<p>My opinion, we’ll have a few more years of pain, and then we’ll scream “WE NEED TO MAKE MORE PILOTS!”. Kids entering in 2012 or a couple of years later may go out of the cockpit for their second assignment, then they may fly for the next 10 years after that, if they want…</p>
<p>Not 100% sure if the Navy is facing the same situation, but as they add more UAVs they will probaly start the same growing pains…</p>