<p>When you know how many applications are in the RD pool (including EA deferrees), you will be able to predict the RD admission rate almost precisely. Yale only has room for about 1,350 freshmen, and it can’t accept more than about 1,900 applicants if it doesn’t want people sleeping in closets. It accepted 750 yesterday, so there’s about 1,100 slots to fill, maybe a handful more. No one will make any decision about what percentage of anyone they admit. They’ll just pick 1,100 people out of however big the pile is, and that’s what the RD admission percentage will be.</p>
<p>Based on last year, an RD pool of around 22,000 looks about right. So 5% RD admissions looks about right, too.</p>