<p>
The evidence that this is true is readily available in results threads here on CC. College admissions decision are not random, but they occur in a black box that includes elements that make them appear somewhat random to the outside observer. Why does a non-legacy kid get admitted to Amherst, but not Williams, while another kid gets admitted to Williams, but not Amherst? It’s possible that if you could see inside the black box, it would be clear. We know it’s not entirely random, and we can make some conclusions about the criteria used, because the kid with a D average and lousy SATs never gets into Williams or Amherst. If you’re a student who likes both Williams and Amherst, and has the stats to be a credible applicant to those schools, isn’t it obvious that the sensible strategy is to apply to both? In terms of your behavior, I would argue that there is no difference between a random factor and a factor that isn’t random but that is unknowable by you.</p>
<p>Let me give an example. Let’s say you’re the most qualified kid in Idaho, and you apply to both Williams and Amherst. What you don’t know is that there is another kid from Idaho whose qualifications are almost as good as yours who happens to be a double legacy at Amherst. He applies to both Williams and Amherst as well. If you could see in the black box, you might see the adcoms at Amherst deciding to reject you on sensible, non-random grounds: we like to take at least one kid from each state, and between these two kids, we’re going to take the legacy if the qualifications are close. But you won’t get that explanation–you’ll only get a rejection letter. At Williams, you might get accepted, and he might be rejected.</p>