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<p>I agree with your conclusion, but the point was not that soccer is like undergaduate admissions; rather, the point was simply that what looks non-random from the inside may look random from the outside. In fact, I have no doubt that it often looks random from the inside, too. Although I have never been involved in undergraduate admissions, I have years of experience with graduate admissions and promotion and tenure decisions. Despite being in a room with people I have known for years, people who have voted on similar cases in the past, I occasionally find myself asking, What just happened? So, I am certain that some members of undergraduate admissions committees are surprised by many decisions. </p>
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<p>Forgive me for the tangent, but the word is actually shoo-in. This is what some linguists call an eggcorn. It occurs when one uses a word that sounds the same as the desired word (a homophone), or nearly so. For example, many of us use free reign in place of the correct free rein or baited breath in place of the correct bated breath. My favorite showed up on a blog recently. The poster referred to some young prima donnas as pre-Madonnas.</p>