If calculus is required for nursing (and I don’t know the answer to that) I would strongly recommend taking calculus in HS based on my S’s experience. See below:
My S did not take calculus in HS. When he started calculus first semester freshman year he was surprised to find that he was one of (I think) three people in a class of 40 who had not taken calc in HS (As a point of reference he went to a college ranked between 50 - 100). So while calculus was review for over 90% of the class the material was all new to him. He spent a ton of time at the math center, at office hours etc. to keep up. He got through the class but it was a difficult way to start college. FWIW he also took two semesters of statistics in college with no HS background and had no problems.
If calculus is not required for nursing students then stat would be a less rigorous alternative.
I also agree that how a student does in pre-calc rather than geometry would be a better predictor for success in calculus.
Is a non-AP version of calculus available at your HS? That could be an option as well (and would likely be considered more rigorous that AP Stat)