@Ctesiphon … I would suggest the increase will have a very small impact on those selected.
You can do research on this (if you want), but my memory is that Swarthmore accepts slightly over 900 applicants to yield the class of just over 400. Their yield rate is in the low 40’s (including ED), so what you have at Swarthmore, Williams, Amherst, Bowdoin, Haverford, and the other highly selective LAC’s are kids who often pick an Ivy.
The additional apps received this year are (I suggest) primarily from two groups: Ivy kids who threw in an extra app because it was a bit easier this year, and kids reaching a bit who figured “why not play the lottery for $60”. Neither of those kids are ultimately going to have more than a very slight impact the kids attending Swarthmore.
It’s not a lottery, and the decisions made are based on information. If you are number 905 or 910 this year, you may have been impacted…but it’s only a dozen or two that are impacted (I suggest).
Good luck