@EconPop The OP asked for advice and BS parents (not college parents) have shared it. All views are anecdotal, but several BS parents have much experience to share that is directly relevant to the OP’s question and situation. Nobody is being a “naysayer”, which suggests pessimism or frank criticism. Suggesting that fewer applications may be a better approach is a valid opinion. And again, opinions are what the OP solicited.
“Don’t listen to the naysayers.” Really?! That’s just embracing confirmation bias (with an attitude). You’re just suggesting that the OP ask a question and only value responses that affirm applying to a large number of schools.
Fortunately, the OP seems mature for his/her age and happy to consider the thoughts and experiences of those who’ve been down the same path before (and multiple times for many of us).