@MassDaD68 - You mentioned your family size will remain the same, as this is your first child entering college. During the next 4 years, will any younger sibling also enter college? A lot of schools FA formula gives credit to the fact you are now paying for 2 in undergrad instead of just 1 - especially when they expect the bulk of it is coming from your cash flow.
Some of the horror stories I have heard (elsewhere) about when it comes people complaining about the bait and switch are actually things that should have been quite predictable - families who complain when the aid drops for child #3, after #1 and #2 graduate. Well, if their family size drops, there should be more available for the remaining child, so the need should go down.
I really want to emphasize how important it is that when you contact the FA dept to ask questions, do your best to avoid the temptation of looking at this as if it were an adversarial relationship. These people really want to help - their department name contains “aid” after all. It is not just the money they are gifting to your child, but the information that you can use. And for the most part, any question you may have will be something they have dealt with before. Also, this is a crazy busy time of year for FA departments, so extra patience is key.
As others have pointed out, relying on non-guaranteed needs based aid involves some risk, but you should be able to get the information for your situation that would help you understand whether or not the level of risk is worthwhile for your family.
Since you mentioned that this school is among your child’s top choices - I would recommend having another discussion with your child explaining how you are evaluating the cost side of things, where several factors remain unknown. I recall DS expressing his gratitude for being included in the process - he said he understood it was not our intention to share the worry, but that we wanted him to think about how we go about getting information. And it helped that with his mathematical brain, he could double check all the NPC estimates.
@CourtneyThurston fairly describes some of the risks that may or may not be applicable to your situation. But there are of course potential risks associated with attending the merit-based aid schools. Tuition increases, fees for certain majors, etc. are not the same at all schools, and sometimes can be unpredictable. If your child transfers from a merit-based school, you will also have questions.
I am the type of person that prefers to know as much of the information as possible before making a decision - and paying for college has been exceptionally maddening for us just because there are too many unknowns.