<p>Dad<em>o</em>3,</p>
<p>The country is redistributing wealth upward…the country isn’t neutral.</p>
<p>When there are forces in the world that are making 90 percent of Americans poorer and 1 percent richer, it makes no sense for government programs to exacerbate this. Yet, that is what our government has been doing for many years. </p>
<p>Increasing jobs…corporations are not in the business of creating jobs…corporations are in the business of making money. The job creator stuff is bs. There haven’t been any jobs created from the private sector
for over 10 years. Yet, corporate profits are at record highs.</p>
<p><a href=“http://www.businessinsider.com/is-this-recovery-or-1937-again-2011-9[/url]”>Is This Recovery or 1937 Again?;
<p>"The government can create jobs…including jobs in the private sector.
Most economists who aren’t political hacks know this.</p>
<p>The standard macroeconomic view is that in recessionary conditions, incremental government spending and tax cuts can stimulate the economy. If the government spends an additional million dollars to build a bridge, that spending directly adds to GDP. But that is only the beginning: the spending on materials and labor is income to suppliers, contractors, and workers, and some of this income will be spent on consumer goods and services, which then further increases GDP. This in turn becomes income for other workers, who similarly increase their spending, again adding to GDP. This process suggests a “fiscal multiplier,” typically associated with Keynesian macroeconomics, such that every one-dollar increase in government spending results in a greater-than-one-dollar increase in GDP. Especially when the economy is stuck at ZIRP, so that private borrowing and spending are particularly weak, the multiplier can be large…
Even before the new administration took office, its economic team had been considering a fiscal stimulus. Romer’s evaluation indicated that a $1.2 trillion package was needed. However, President-elect Obama’s political advisers insisted that this was not feasible, and the numbers were shaved. Once in office, President Obama proposed a $675–$775 billion package to stimulate the economy.32
Intervention here: When I hear statements that “the stimulus failed”, I think it important to recall that between the election and inaugural day, business economists revised downward their estimates of GDP<em>[2]. The proper metric is then to compare against the counterfactual as of the time of implementation, as described in</em>here,here<em>and</em>here.
…
Some policymakers and economists believed that any government intervention, even in so troubled an economy, was unjustified. Congressman Ron Paul (R-Tex.) complained that “the US government just won’t allow the correction the economy needs.” He invoked the recession of 1921, which was deep but short, in Paul’s view because the government permitted insolvent companies to fail. “No one remembers that one,” he averred. “They’ll remember this one, because it will last 15 years.”34<em>Paul’s view was reminiscent of the position of the “liquidationists” of the early 1930s, who were led by Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon. Mellon’s advice to President Herbert Hoover was typical: “Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate … purge the rottenness out of the system.”35</em>The idea was almost moralistic: bad loans, bad debts, bad businesses, and bad deals had to be exorcised before the economy could right itself. Satisfying as such a scorched-earth policy might be (at least to those not caught in its path), few serious economists or policymakers ever considered it.36
Some theoretical objections to an active fiscal stimulus were based on the view that government spending would inevitably be wasteful, providing no real benefit to the population. Others emphasized the expectation that increased government spending would be counteracted by an offsetting reduction in private spending. The budget deficits that would result from tax cuts or more government spending would drive interest rates higher and reduce, or “crowd out,” private investment and spending. The economists who held these positions were generally hostile to traditional Keynesian views, especially because of the Keynesian inclination to assume that there were market failures that government could correct…
But among most economists, there was a general consensus on the desirability of some form of active fiscal policy. In a February 2009 Wall Street Journal poll of economists, 68 percent said that the proposed stimulus package was about the right size or too small. Only 31 percent said that it was too large. Most economists in the policy and business circles viewed a stimulus package as something that could soften the blows of a deep downturn and hasten the arrival of a recovery.38
Well, we know about how much interest rates have risen in response to the stimulus package<em>[3]</em>[4]. And with that decline in long term interest rates, we know how much interest-rate-induced crowding out of investment has occurred: nil. Instead, the drama we seem to be witnessing now is a replay of 1937*[Krugman], when policymakers overly worried about inflation and deficits withdrew stimulus too early. Whether we will (re-)learn that lesson is the question of the moment."</p>