OP here. Thanks for all the thoughts that basically confirm my instincts. Some more background.
- Daughter isn't enamored with Liberal Arts colleges as a category. She particularly likes Reed because of its quirky woodsy intellectual vibe, lack of varsity sports, that kind of thing. Lewis & Clark, across the river in a similar setting with it's more traditional student body, lots of athletes and pretty upscale students walking around in college sweatshirts she found less interesting. So hunting down some other random liberal arts college that does offer merit aid is unlikely to be the answer. The most academic ones like Reed and Pomona tend not to offer any merit aid. She also has no interest in leaving the west coast.
- Yes I realize we are in a more enviable situation than most. My wife is a family physician, I'm a teacher. We have 3 daughters and just finished paying for daughter #1's college education at University of Arkansas. I never bothered to fill out the FAFSA because there was no point. We just paid for all four years full freight. CAN we pay for a school like Reed? We could probably get there with a lot of stretching and doing things like postponing our own retirement by several years. Our current income that puts us into the full pay category is a recent development as my wife is an immigrant from Latin America so we have far fewer years of higher earnings that most in our category and are playing catchup on retirement savings as well. And we also support family back in Latin America. So a decision to send the child to Reed (or the equivalent) would really likely mean asking my wife who is already reaching burnout to grind away for a few more years in full time clinical medicine long past the point that she wants to dial back and at least semi-retire and do other things. It would be her sacrifice more than mine. And that is a pretty big ask I think.
- Yes, we are fully aware of the UW Honors College. We were planning to visit the honors college itself in late March before things shut down. My finger-to-the-wind take is that while our daughter is a reasonably good candidate for admission to the university, the Honors College is highly competitive and perhaps more iffy. By reputation it also seems full of hyper-competitive pre-med types who make the smaller honors classes brutally competitive. So there may be both pros and cons to the Honors College.
- Some more background. I'm a Reed alum but I also went to grad school at UW in marine sciences. So I've been around both campuses for years. My own personal take on the difference is that small liberal arts colleges do a TREMENDOUS amount of hand holding of affluent kids who are used to helicopter parenting. That is partly what you get for your money. Much less of that at the big publics. At the big schools, the students who are highly successful create their own support groups for themselves. Especially the immigrant kids at a place like UW. It's just not deans and student life counselors and such doing the organizing. There are just ad-hoc groups of motivated students in departments all over campus who are making the school work for them in their own way. I'm pretty sure this daughter is mature and self-disciplined enough to make a big school work for her. She is more the kind that will need to be kicked out of the lab at 10 pm on a Friday and told to go have fun. Than the opposite.