We are not considering return on investment “data” for many of the reasons that others have already eloquently laid out. There is so much noise and so many variables as others have laid out. Another variable that points to the absurdity of trying is that our kid is undecided on major and will go into college that way. It highlights the foolishness of thinking of ROI when your kid could ultimately major in Econ and go into consulting or become an elementary school teacher or anything in between. The school she attends is at best a minor variable on ROI compared to that choice.
Moreover, I don’t even think the “return” in ROI is the right way to think about college. I’ve been a public servant for years. I made made more money before going into public service, but am far more satisfied with my life and career now. By ROI standards I am doing worse than I was before. But my life is 1000% better. Why would I measure my daughter’s choices by a measure that doesn’t account for the most important aspect of my career. Beyond a certain point, other things are more valuable than money. And what that point is varies widely by individual.
The value of attending one school over another cannot just be reduced to a misapplied pseudo economics concept. College is not just about maximizing wealth, or it shouldn’t be for most people. As others have said, the key is to determine what you are comfortable investing in the education which is more controllable and knowable. But, leave the pretending to be able to assess a “return” ahead of time and trying to quantify that out of it.