In a positive or negative way? a bump up (we almost liked you enough the first time, so we should give you an extra look? you still love us best?) or a ding (you didn’t quite cut the mustard last time- why not? are you just trying to ‘upgrade’?)
Was a question as to the student’s ability to handle the work, and the thinking is that having 2 years of good work ‘proves’ that they can handle it? In that case, I think a rejection is much more likely than a waitlist (and of course, a lot of waitlist offers are just a polite version of a rejection).
Also, the degree of selectivity is relevant: the more selective the school- and the narrower the gap between Uni A & Uni B- the more likely the move is to be seen as prestige hunting, vs an academic or personal fit need to move*. In that peculiar way of things, the tippy-tops love their prestigious reputations- but like to pretend that that is not a factor in why students want to go there!