We were told by our school’s GC that UM, UVA, UNC and UT-Austin were all reaches. (We ended up not applying to UNC). Our GC did not say that with regard to Wisconsin, however, and D’s stats are certainly comparable to those who received acceptances. We treated it as a very doable match. She was nevertheless deferred. D may well get into Wisconsin (or Michigan for that matter), in the RD cycle, but by then she will be considering other schools, as well as the school that already gave her an EA offer.
One thing I would explain to others is this: some states simply don’t have flagships that approximate the experience of a Michigan or Wisconsin. It isn’t just the academics or prestige. It’s also the community feeling, the athletic events, the clubs and internship opportunities … you name it. That’s why high stats kids in Maine (where the OP says he’s from) are going to apply to OOS schools. To be sure, he should include OOS schools other than Wisconsin and UM, but I can’t blame him for seeking that kind of college experience.