<p>Dear Damond3 : If one postulates that the decrease of 9,000 applications and the introduction of the second 400 word essay are tightly correlated, one can similarly conclude that there is little correlation to previous achievements and therefore assume that the overall quality will remain the same. Similarly, a reasonable conclusion is that the essay addition to the Common Application has somewhat self-selected more committed students from those just throwing another $100.00 at the “Top 30” named schools. </p>
<p>The single most interesting data point moving forward will be the yield from the acceptance pool. Whether the currently depressed economic climate keeps the yield in the same range or the $52,000/year sticker shock sets in for those expecting huge pacakges have any additional impact will need to be closely examined. If this group has been self-selected, one should expect an increase in the yield.</p>