<p>So far all the anecdotes in this thread that I recall report that a student can get into a state university without an early admission round even if he declines an ED offer. But big deal. He could get into that kind of college if he had never applied ANYWHERE in the ED club. It does seem that breaking an ED commitment enormously reduces your chances of getting into any other college that is part of the same enrollment standards association (e.g., the Ivy Group) or that also has an ED program or even an EA program. That’s risk enough.</p>