@GMTplus7, good luck with having your own inmigration policy.
To allow Switzerland to trade with it, the EU forces Switzerland to allow open movement of EU citizens. A trade war isn’t great for the EU, but a trade war with the EU would be catastrophic for the UK.
I think this article sums things up nicely.
I find the ‘Bremain’ biased news coverage regarding this issue also a little disturbing. When was the last time you read an article that had anything good to say about a Brexit? Everything is overwhelmingly negative, which is not realistic… there are, of course, pros and cons to a Brexit, but people are being told only the cons by the news outlets. They are even going so far as to associate a Brexit with Trump to further sensationalize the whole thing.
Give people the straight facts and leave out the manipulating tactics.
I agree. Last night on CNN, Christiane Amanpour, was openly hostile to any Brexit interviewee. Shouting, talking over them. Not journalistic at all.
And really, as a member of the media ‘elite’ this is just the sort of thing that angers regular people.
@fractalmstr, it’s hard to see the pro’s. And what facts? This has never happened before so there is a lot of projection. What facts do you see?
Since when is elite bad? Elite means superior, educated, informed. I aspire to be elite. That’s a good thing.
@GMTplus7 The EU funding for the poorer areas is a redistribution of wealth to those who need it, and who by that token contributed little to the main budget, even if the country did. I’m unsure of exact figures, but overall I’ve heard it said that it was a good return.
As for Cameron- well he opened Pandora’s box, so must accept the consequences. He said at the beginning of this term of office that he did not intend to lead his party at the next general election. If things are to settle before 2020 the new leader will need all the time possible to mend rifts etc.
I think Cameron doesn’t want to be responsible for cleaning up the very big mess that Boris Johnson and others created. Interesting that Boris himself was among those calling on Cameron to stay; sounds like he’s not so keen on taking responsibility for putting Humpty Dumpty together again, either.
The Scottish government is already indicating there will be a new referendum on Scottish independence. Now that push has come to shove, it appears most Scots would rather be married to the EU than to England… So it could be the end of the UK as we know it. London will also take it in the chops. London’s financial sector has been riding high as the economic and financial hub of Europe, but with the UK out of the EU a lot of that business will go elsewhere, and multinationals wanting a foot in Europe will invest in Dublin, Paris, Amsterdam or Frankfurt instead of London. London’s too important to simply dry up, of course, but I don’t see how this could possibly be good for London, and Londoners recognized that, voting overwhelmingly to remain. In some ways I see this as much an anti-London vote by those parts of England that felt left out of the party as it was an anti-Brussels vote. And let’s be clear–it was England (apart from London and a few smaller pockets like Liverpool, Manchester, Oxford, and Cambridge) that voted to leave. Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain, and Northern Ireland voted to remain by a smaller but substantial margin. I think England will be left on its own, a much smaller country with a much smaller voice in Europe and the world. Like Switzerland and Norway (both non-EU states) it will be obligated to follow all of Brussels’ rules if it wants to continue to trade on favorable terms with its most important trading partners, but like Switzerland and Norway it will no longer have a voice in making those rules. Oh, well. At least England will still have Wales to boss around.
Facts meaning give people both pros and cons, realistic possible outcomes both ways. So far, everything has been doom and gloom, and I don’t think that is a fair assessment. One obvious pro to a Brexit is reclaimed sovereignty, with the UK being able to craft their own decisions based on their own needs (rather than the needs of the EU).
The EU has been overreaching, and that is evident by the pushback from some member countries. They should be focused on economy, and not getting into the refugee business. From an economic perspective I see some benefits (as well as some disadvantages) to the EU, but that is not the main reason UK citizens voted to leave.
When Singapore was kicked out of Malaysia in '65, many Singaporeans thought their country was doomed. And look how that turned out.
“@fractalmstr, it’s hard to see the pro’s.”
GMT’s post #136 lists what people think the pro’s (arguments) are.
The ‘elites’ were not ‘informed’ about the concerns of the 52%. They didn’t educate themselves on how to address those concerns.
They are quite correct that they’ve been screwed over, mostly by the forces which protect the banks, the largest corporations, and the ultra wealthy at the expense of the working class. Same thing here in the US. What confuses me is why so many in the working class have been persuaded to direct their rage at immigrants. That does nothing at all to help them.
I guess I can be prone to hyperbole, but I do think that this is a disaster.
To me, the roots of this begin with our apparent ignorance of Keynesian economics. After the 2008 financial crisis, everyone seems to have forgotten in a recession you need an expansion of government fiscal spending. Rolling austerity has led to an unnecessarily long recession and political instability,.
I think this has taken out a generation of economic growth for England. I think that this will lead to waves of selling off in global equity markets. The US dollar will strengthen immensely increasing the price of our exports. Import prices from europe and the UK will fall leading to another wave of layoffs in manufacturing in the US. This might lead to trade wars in 2018.
There will be a recession in 2017 in the US. Fortunately, it might not be realized until after the 2016 presidential elections,
I hope that I am wrong. The delayed implementation due to the exit negotiations might cushion the impact. It might prolong the suffering too.
There is no reward for successfully predicting disaster.
Article outlining which countries may also want to leave and why: Sweden, Denmark, Hungary, France, The Netherlands.
I don’t think anyone here, or anyone at all, has a private phone line to the future. The UK may be headed for disaster or brilliant success or likely some muddle in between. What does seem evident to me is that the EU as it is now constituted is in question. The chronic problems with underemployment, unassimilated immigrant communities, the Greek bailout, the brazen annexation of the Crimea, the conflict in the Ukraine and the destabilization of that region, the ongoing refugee crisis, the massive over-regulation of everyday life, the rise of nativist political parties - all suggest we may be approaching the end of the EU in its current form.
I also don’t think, as some here appear to, that there are only apocalyptic, binary alternatives. I do think that the EU needs to immediately and deeply consider its own weaknesses and failures and act to reconstruct itself. Are these technocrats able to rise to such leadership? Time will tell.
Brilliant success may come from going it alone on the world market? How does that work?
Immigration (in particular refugees, and illegal immigrants) places a heavy burden on the welfare system of any country. It strains valuable resources that could otherwise go to legal citizens of the country who are in need of those resources.
More importantly though, UK citizens are more upset at the EU dictating immigration policy, than at the immigrants themselves. They (UK citizens) want to be in charge of these decisions, and rightfully so. The EU leaders should have never gotten involved in this refugee/migrant mess, IMHO.
The “elites” will still be fine, they always are for the most part - it’s the people who voted to leave who will be disproportionally affected. I do feel sorry for them for being duped. It will be a hard lesson for them to learn.
Nos. 127 & 133; Excellent points by Fractlmstr.
I won’t criticize the “let’s get out!” voters yet. Their complaints about the mismanagement or “no management” of immigration policies are valid. And politicians, as is their wont, apparently hadn’t shown much empathy for the plight of the British man and woman in the street, or the plowman or the dressmaker, so to speak.
However, I do fear that we may see a return to the meanness of the Thatcher years, when, for example British subjects in Hong Kong were told they were not welcome in the motherland. And we don’t need to look into the past to see how migrants from Poland, for example, are reviled in some corners of the UK.