<p>I would agree, Northstarmom. I find the chance threads lacking in any real value. To a very large degree, they seem to consist of anxious, smart, high achieving high schoolers reassuring each other, based on a heady mix of available data, hopes, dubious analysis and rumors.
It’s very understandable. College admissions has been a very stressful and difficult thing for many kids. The current generation is no smarter or better than mine, but they have worked much harder in high school and are bombarded with stress-inducing messages.
And, I’ll admit that I would love to know the exact odds for my child at the ten or so schools currently on the list. But I also know that is not possible. I listen to the college counselors at the school and I look at the numbers provided by the schools. I read a bit as well. And all that gives me a foggy sense of his chances, and the clear idea that ‘foggy’ is about as good as it gets for him.
Foggy is about as good as it gets for most kids too. Most can , with help, find a school that is very likely to accept them, and a list of other schools that may accept them. Some savvy conversations with parents and others will help them figure out what is affordable, which looms as large as acceptance.
But, beyond that, there’s no special crystal ball, particularly here. And, some of the folks here would be wise to spend their time elsewhere.</p>